Ethereum (ETH) has failed to break past the 38.2% fib level after a devastating double-digit decline. This has made it difficult for the bulls to push the price higher even though it has now found support on the 100-day EMA. If ETH/USD fails to break past this resistance anytime soon, we might be looking at a decline to the 200-day moving average with a potential wick down to the 61.8% fib level. This could then pave the way for a rally to the upside but for now the odds of a rally much higher at this point are low. If we see a break and close above the 38.2% fib level, then the odds would improve.
We can notice on the daily chart for ETH/USD that the pair is still in a downtrend. The RSI is bearish and has just formed a lower low. The MACD remains bearish but there is a slight probability of it turning bullish. The altcoin market as a whole is under a lot of pressure. Even as markets are experiencing pain because of the Oil slump and Coronavirus fears, some people are still talking about how Bitcoin (BTC) could be a safe haven asset during the next decline even though it has declined sharply with the rest of the market. This is a trend we have seen repeat over and over. However, that has not stopped some people from thinking it could be a safe haven asset, but what about Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins? Nobody thinks they are a safe haven asset, so if the stock market goes down, they are expected to go down harder.
The daily chart for Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) shows that we might see a rally in BTC dominance in the near future if it consolidates above the 38.2% fib retracement level. The RSI and MACD indicate that any rally in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) may not last for long as we might see a rejection at the 61.8% fib level and a potential downtrend to begin after that.
This means that we could see an altcoin rally before the upcoming halving but it will be short-lived. Financial markets across the world are very concerned about the spread of Coronavirus and now the Saudi-Russia fueled oil war that could take the markets by storm. This coupled with uncertainty in US politics indicates that 2020 could be a year where we might see a decisive move in the cryptocurrency market. The altcoin uptrend that started in 2016 might reverse this time as Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) rises.
