169
- When I started doing the back test with the MA 62 in Weekly, I can say that we are on a Bottom after the break down of the MA 62 in January 2022 we are at -58% retracement and this is almost the case during the last two cycles.
- The passage below the MA 62 after a long bull run of almost 1000 days, we arrive at the Bear market of arround 1 year on a range of accumulation with a lot of volumes traded via the VPFR Volume Profile Fixed Range indicator which starts with the break below the 62 MA to the break of the top, and now we are 231 days away from the Bear market waiting for the 62 MA break of the top and the end of our Bear market towards a whole new cycle of bull run of almost 1000 days.
BTC is still very young with less history, and now we have the institutions of the traditional stock market which arrived last year 2021 with a 90% correlation against the S&P 500, so everything is possible especially on the S&P 500 towards a global economic crisis that will take liquidity out of the BTC and crypto market included in the risk assets of the whales, to switch to the dollar in full bull run.
Finally if we go lower than 17.6K towards 15K for example or lower, then it's not normal if we base ourselves only on the history of BTC, but very normal if the S&P 500 will fall sharply as it has done during the crisis of 2008 and 2001 with -50% correction from the ATH.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RAimwOYb/
- The MA 62 break of the top on the Weekly candle of December 26th, 2011 visible on the BTC Index.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Fr8N7YwK/
The S&P 500 since the crisis of 2001/2002 and 2008/2009 has never corrected to -50% again
On the last three Bear markets if we consider the covid crash as a mini Bear market, the biggest correction of the S&P 500 was at -35% during the Covid crash and then a V Bottom and a long-term bullish recovery, then the BTC I left the comparison on the picture.
What is happening in the world now after Covid, the war in Ukraine, rising inflation and interest rates, point to a potential crisis if the macro economy don't improve.
The bullish hope I think on the S&P 500 and BTC will be with a dollar DXY at its highest around 150 and Russia will find a peace solution with Ukraine, inflation will come down with interest rates, and a covid which will be largely exterminated, especially in China
The bullish recovery of the market will be rain in the dessert then spring on the Stocks and cryptos markets with the arrival of liquidity via the Dollar on future Bear Market.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yz41aICP/
?? Please follow the links below to the best & Secured Exchanges that I use for trading & often gives rewards for using their platform like Learn & Earn Program, making deposit & Trading on spot or Futures, Trading Competition, ...etc.
?? Binance: https://www.binance.com/en/register?ref=12258276
https://ftx.com/#a=1768923
?? Bybit: https://www.bybit.com/app/register?ref=7Wgmj
?? Phemex: https://phemex.com/register?group=718&referralCode=BAR9K
?? Bitmex: https://www.bitmex.com/app/register/xXePh3
?? Kucoin: https://www.kucoin.com/ucenter/signup?rcode=Kvyf2d
