As we know up to now, the job of a trader is to collect information, analyze data, evaluate market fluctuations and psychology, and finally make judgments and have plans as well. investment plan for yourself.
Plugging your face into the chart and looking at the candlestick chart and using the PTKT tool is indispensable. However, this brings too many side effects to those who are completely dependent on indicators and candles.
The counterproductive thing here is that some people overuse the indicator, gradually causing their analysis ability to become more and more passive because they have to wait for the indicator's consensus signal.
Our thinking and vision are hindered by what is available, directly affecting the trader's account, psychology and behavior. But forget that the indicator is just a tool to support each person's analysis, not a holy grail or a guiding light here.
I myself am a person who used to be immersed in technical analysis with dozens of indicators at the same time, having to look at the chart for dozens of hours every day, forgetting to eat and sleep. But then the account still burned as usual.
The question here is why the same usage, the same cluster of candlestick patterns, the same consensus signal is not as accurate as before?
Originally ptkt is just a tool to synthesize historical flow data to give users a view of the prediction signal. Since it's a prediction, we can still analyze it as usual without needing technical analysis.
On the other hand, if ptkt indicators were really useful, their creators would keep them to themselves and just make a quick order rather than sell the indicator to collect change. Because no one is crazy enough to share all of their secrets to wealth.
In the information or introduction about ptkt, it is clearly stated that it is only a support tool, not something that lights the way to great success for you.
Right from the moment I changed my trading method, I realized that looking at the chart and analysis analysis no longer determined my assessment. There are times when you don't even need to touch it.
In terms of just Crypto, with $BTC we often focus on transaction volume and market sentiment fluctuations, because we all know $BTC does not have Allocation like other altcoins and the top holders are familiar names. belongs to (Coinbase, GrayScale, Binance, Michale Saylor, Robinhood, US government, etc.).
These top holders are not the type to buy and resell in the short term. Their top priority is long-term holding rather than liquidity, so it is not necessary for the top holders to sell all their goods to collect them in the near future. short term or not.
On the other hand, the amount of circulation has almost reached the limit, even miners have to spend quite a bit of time to own 1 $BTC, so there is no need to check Tokenomics or check the wallet too deeply.
For altcoins, I focus on Mcap, Allocation, FDV, and where the tokens are located. When delving into the data, I can deduce resistance/support levels, liquidity price zones, consolidation price zones and project movements.
More specifically, in terms of allocation, the tokens are mainly in the hands of the project's team and funds, which means that the project will have the ability to grow rather than decline. And vice versa, when the token is held more by retail, the decrease in price and sw is inevitable. Because only when MM holds the goods will the price be pushed up, this is understandable.
For FDV, this is an index that helps us estimate the maximum liquidity area in each person's vision to find the profit taking point (different from MM's maximum liquidity level). For example, $OP when it first listed on BINANCE had an FDV of $2B (this number is my example, $OP I haven't followed from the beginning so I can't remember the exact number), compared with projects like SOL, AVAX, LINK or even MATIC 2.0. When checking Layer2 projects (when the top list is $MATIC), if we see that the Mcap of projects in the same array is stable at an Mcap level above $1.5b, we can estimate the profit-taking price area when the Mcap of $ OP reaching $1B is very likely whether buying $OP at $0.4 or $0.7.
As for Mcap, take Binance's LaunchP product as a specific example. Most of the time when LaunchP projects are sold out because users receive airdrops or buy IDO/ICO, Mcap will drop to $40M - $50M at the same time => the bottom area of ??the project as well as MM's accumulation area. (Whether you want to collect or not, you have to check the project's dynamics to see if you want to maintain it or let it go). From there, there is a pretty good position to plan DCA more reasonably than other price zones.
As I said in the previous post, I waited for the retest before entering the store, not before even though the price was lower. Because we all understand that it is impossible to know exactly where the bottom is and everything is just a prediction so it can be wrong. The main thing to do is wait for a clear confirmation signal, which will help limit risks a lot.
To explain in a more understandable way, like $MAV listed Binance with Mcap $145M, then it was dumped to $55M and swam around Mcap $50M, continued to be dumped but not worth much and could not be lower than the previous price. is $0.19. During the period from August 17 to October 18, $MAV continuously swam in the $0.19 - $0.3 range - a large amplitude (and a small amplitude from $0.19 - $0.22) no matter how volatile the market was. From there, it can be deduced that the hard subsidy zone of $MAV is $0.19 - $0.2, which is also a very nice accumulation bottom.
Checking through the onchain data, I see that the majority of tokens are in the hands of the team and the fund, plus the consolidation of goods in many small wallets and pouring them into large wallets. If evaluated from a supply-demand perspective, the data shows that demand is greater than supply when $MAV tests Mcap $50M. => MM's consolidation area (accumulated for two months). So I have confirmed the bottom area with 80% certainty.
On October 19, $MAV tested the bottom again but could not penetrate this resistance level and bounced up immediately afterward. I am even more certain that $MAV cannot drop more than $40M for Mcap. On October 26, I decided to enter the market when $MAV tested $0.22 again and immediately bounced back up (Mcap at that time was $53M). Since then $MAV has grown and has an Mcap of more than $80M.
So my analysis was correct for the bottom area and my position when entering the line at that time was quite good. When compared with other projects in the same segment that all have an Mcap of more than $1.3M, I am sure that $MAV will reach an Mcap of $800, which is a very high possibility. However, to optimize both profit and risk, my plan will be divided into three profit-taking times at $250M, $500M and $800M - $1B because we are entering the uptrend season.
From what has been highlighted above, everyone can compare their approach to the projects that everyone is closely following. Of course, projects will not be the same and for the best analysis, sticking to a project for several months is indispensable.
Another example I also mentioned in the previous article is that $HFT currently has an Mcap of $58M after retesting the $50M zone many times and failing => hard subsidy for $HFT so I took the next step. one foot on the boat.
Through this, everyone can see that just turning on the coinecko or cryptorank app to browse Mcap, Vol is more comfortable than looking at charts and ptkt with a bunch of confusing indicators. From there, an extremely comfortable trading psychology is formed without pressure because the candles keep jerking up and down under extreme pressure.
The title of this article is essentially what I want to say about not having to stick to the chart to relieve pressure. But if you trade without looking at the chart, how can you enter orders accurately? The pinnacle of marketing for a project or MM is the chart. When we are psychologically comfortable, our thinking and judgment will be much brighter. This is also a method of training trading psychology, not just a trading method.
This is my personal method, after many failures I was able to form it clearly and specifically. Just like $MAV and $HFT were in my wallet and only took them out to have actual evidence. Because I have calculated with these two stocks that the more they go down, the more they buy and the level of loss is within my allowable range. So everyone is just for reference and I do not encourage application or follow-up.
