Your Weekend Reading: The US ‘No Landing’ Economic Scenario

As US inflation receded over the past few months, some economists warned that the situation might get sticky—the kind where inflation seems to retreat only to the works again. This week, that scenario seemed to arrive. While new data showed overall inflation still falling if only slightly, for January, consumer prices rose again, potentially a sign of a feared persistence that could push the Fed to raise rates for longer. Still, the overall economy remains robust, with more blowout job numbers and resilient spending (and skyrocketing credit card debt). Though the Fed’s timeline for snuffing out high prices is hard to predict, one thing may seem a bit clearer: Corporate profits appear to have peaked after a two-year bonanza, with some businesses retrenching. And while market observers continue to whether the US economy will manage a soft landing, enter a full downturn or maybe experience a series of “little recessions,” there may be a fourth option: the so-called “no landing” scenario. This fact pattern includes a strong economy, a muscular labor market—and inflation that won’t go away. “While the idea of not having to bring the plane in to land at all sounds positive at first blush,” John Authers Bloomberg Opinion, “it would mean higher rates that would endanger equities and the credit market.”

What you’ll want to read this weekend

US President Joe Biden says he makes “no apologies” for shooting down a suspected Chinese spy balloon, though he expects to speak with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to reduce tensions. As for the other three unidentified flying objects the US downed in the past week, they don’t appear to be from China, Biden said. The suspicion is that they were for commercial purposes, the US said, and that aliens were not involved. 

Tesla is recalling 362,758 vehicles due to a crash risk associated with its so-called Full Self-Driving Beta software, according to US authorities. It was another blow to Elon Musk’s ambitions for autonomous driving, with a robotaxi teased as recently as December now arguably further from delivery. As for new cars actually meant to be driven by humans, they’re increasingly out of reach for the middle class. The average monthly payment has soared to $777, almost double that of late 2019. And used cars aren’t much better.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s accumulation of political power hampered rescue efforts after last week’s massive earthquakes, an opposition leader said, adding to intense criticism of his handling of the crisis as he seeks re-election this year. The pair of quakes decimated 10 provinces across southeast Turkey and northwest Syria, killing more than 40,000 people. The government has begun investigating and arresting contractors for shoddy building practices. The country needs an estimated 1 million new homes

Remote work may be here to stay. And it’s killing big offices and their ecosystems. The trend is most pronounced in New York, where workers are spending at least $12.4 billion less a year near their offices due to about 30% fewer days in them. For millennials, many in the middle of their professional careers, the extra savings might come in handy. A report shows that those born from 1981 to 1996 earn 20% less than baby boomers did at their age. Another survey found millennials age 28-38 had a lower net-wealth-to-income ratio than any previous generation.

A typical home on Miami’s super-exclusive Star Island is valued at $40 million, up from $23.5 million in December 2019, making it the most expensive neighborhood in America. While a broad real estate boom lifted prices across the US during the first two years of the pandemic, the Miami region saw its number of million-dollar ZIP codes more than double, reflecting the migration south of wealthy home-buyers (and in Star Island’s case, the relocation from Chicago of Ken Griffin, founder of hedge fund giant Citadel).  

What you’ll need to know next week

• Presidents’ Day holiday in the US; financial are closed.
• The one-year anniversary of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
• Eurozone consumer confidence, Germany CPI,
• The Fed releases minutes from its last policy meeting.
• South Africa presents its budget amid an energy crisis

The FTX Arc of Brotherhood and Betrayal 

As the crypto exchange FTX imploded, founder Sam Bankman-Fried texted Gary Wang, his close confidante and the company’s ultimate secret-keeper. “We can make this work,” he wrote. But the Feds were closing in—and one was going to turn on the other. The pair had come along way together: From teenage mathletes to MIT frat brothers to crypto billionaires. But in the months since the exchange’s collapse, the two have offered dueling accounts of its demise—and who is ultimately to blame