There's always gonna be FUD and there's always gonna be development to eat that FUD alive. Same as there's always gonna be boom and bust cycles, or call them bull and bear markets sequences. Bitcoin and the whole crypto arena is in a bull market and we won't enter bearish territory any time soon.
The market does quite often the opposite of what the majority is expecting and proof of that is the current rebound from the $30,000 levels for Bitcoin, where most of the crypto space participants were bearish and quite a few were calling for a bear market. Some still believe this is a fake out rally... Good luck with that narrative!
Others like @mindtrap are getting nervous about Bitcoin hovering "for days" near the $46,000 level and not doing anything spectacular, forgetting that we were $16,000 lower just a couple of weeks ago. It's not going to moon in a shot, it will definitely take some time, but it sure feels more and more like 2017, or at least that's how I feel. I was a complete noob four years ago, by the way, but I was around here to.
We're not over yet with the bull market and my take is that the real deal shall commence once Bitcoin will pass the $100,000 strong psychological level. That's when we will see unprecedent type of FOMO and rallies like never before. Yes, I do believe in such a scenario, in pure madness and extreme FOMO, something we haven't had this cycle.
The fear and greed index is at 72, signaling greed, but my take is we will have extreme greed levels that will last for weeks, if not months in a row. We haven't had a blow off top yet and so far every bull cycle has recoded such a "happy ending". August seems to be a good month, @edicted has predicted that quite accurately and we will probably have a slight pullback in September just to shake some final weak hands out, before entering the final phase of the bull market...
...pretty much like it happened in 2017. We're not there yet and one personal metric that tells me that is the fact that I don't see excessive confidence. There's excitement around the price action and some predictions seem to go well, fresh new money is entering the market, we somehow "claimed the $2 trillion" level, but "nobody knows anything for sure". We're still in a waiting game. Overconfidence is a metric that I believe will signal the end of the bull market.
I remember quite vividly how every shit head was making videos on youtube, back in 2017, about Cardano and Tron on how high the coins will fly, analyzing charts with absolutely no TA skill or qualification at hand to back their saying and how every one of these shitheads was making money out of that. So far we only had smart money making money, thus no brags so far from the dumb money in that regard.
The media has talked a bit about Bitcoin during the local peak, back in May, but "mid cycle talks", nothing aggressive. No one is yet calling Bitcoin the standard and and we don't have Bitcoin millionaire stories yet. We're kind of quiet you know and bull markets tops are nothing but quiet. There's gonna be noise when we peak and that should be "another call" is time to pull the trigger on some profit taking and shorting the market.
Cuz yeah, you can make some money on the way down to, and that's what I'm planning to do. The sky is not yet the limit, we're still stranded between EMAs and WMAs and that sucks, but in a couple of months this reaccumulation period will be forgotten for sure. There are going to be wake up calls for the end of the bull market, but we haven't had them yet. We might be just a few months away from a blow off top though...
We haven't seen "insane levels of anything yet", thus enjoy your lemonade and let the bull market do its thing, the bears will show their faces sooner or later, but not for now. Bulls like heat and we're still on their territory. You're gonna get "the call" when we enter the bear market, I assure you.
Thanks for attention,
Adrian
