Last week little happened on the HTF, the exchange rate was between 434 and 478 dollars the whole week. The current week started with a nice bullish candle. We also see the rsi and macd moving up again and also the bullish momentum is increasing. Last week seems to have been a period to catch your breath and then break the next resistance neveau at $497. If you also look at the fibonacci that I put on the chart a few weeks ago you will see that Ethereum is climbing level by level very nicely. Looking at the ema's we see a nice signal ahead, namely a bullish crossover of the ema55 with the ema100. And given the momentum that is increasing on the lbr I expect this crossover to happen in the next two weeks.
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On the day chart ETH just managed to break the highs (first red circle) with a few dollars after which the highs were tested for it. This is also called a flip from resistance to support. When we look at the indicators we see that the ema's are perfectly positioned to go further up. The rsi moves under the ema, but against it and above the middle. You don't want to see a rejection on the ema resulting in a drop towards the middle line but this is one of the options. A bullish crossover should give enough power to break both higs that are circled red and print a higher high on the chart. The lbr is also below the signal line and above the middle. We have also seen the bullish momentum increase in the last two days. The macd is full in the bulllish part but at a point of a bullish bounce or a bearish crossover. The bullish momentum is low but increasing no matter what we saw on the lbr.
The hidden bull div I mentioned in last week's analysis has played beautifully. With a maximum increase of no less than 8% in three days. After the outbreak of the triangle ETH tested the trend line again and from that point on the increase was 5.5% in less than two days. After that, the course did drop back to the red support zone. If you're going to go through the lower trend line of the triangle again, the price has gone below it for a while but is currently trading above it again. This in combination with a higer high and higher low are good signals for a possible continuation of the rise.
The ema's are in good shape, the rsi moves in neutral territory above the two important lines. The lbr shows the same image as on the rsi and we also see the bullish momentum increase. The macd has just completed a bullish crossover on the 0 line and also here we see the bullish momentum coming.
Conclusion:
My expectations are that we will move to the next resistance level at $497 in the coming period. If we are going to get a daily close under the red support block then I think it is time to look seriously at a short position. On the lower timeframes I would like to see confirmation for my thought. For example I keep an eye on the 1h if ETH can stay above the lower trend line of the triangle and on the 4h I would like to see a higher high appear.
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