History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. It's cliche but it's true. Statistically, this time is probably not any different; if anything there's a little more juice in the tank for this bull market. But don't get too excited; it's all for naught if you don't have a plan. In this post, I'm going to examine why I believe there will be another alt season in the next couple of years (2022-2024) relatively similar to late 2017-2018.
First Mover Advantage/Network Effect
King Bitcoin moves first and this is the way it has always been. Why? Bitcoin was here first, first introduced in 2009 as the first crypto and, with a market cap now over $1 trillion, Bitcoin is the foremost crypto asset and leading name in the space. Of course, new investors will gravitate first towards the largest and most popular asset that's deemed "safe" before other assets.
Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin tends to dominate early-mid cycles, controlling the majority of crypto market share early on and decreasing it in waves as BTC approaches its peak, after which point Bitcoin Dominance collapses, ceding ample market share to other cryptos.
Sector Rotation
As anyone who has been through a crypto market cycle from start to finish knows, there is some degree of a pattern of how capital flows witinin the ecosystem between a new cycle's conception to its completion.
New Money
As is tradition, with any bull market for any asset class, retail investors (AKA "Dumb Money") are usually the last ones in, resulting in some final parabolic and blowoff tops. Seeing as how 1 Bitcoin is already over $30,000 and will probably cost more than $100K in the next couple years, it'll be impossible for most retail investors to own one. Plus, who wants to buy 0.0001 BTC when you can buy 3,000 of "the next Bitcoin"? Retail investors are and will continue to be priced out of Bitcoin; accordingly, as new investors enter the space looking to get in on the fun and profits too, they will look more towards cryptos they can afford many of in hopes of "making it big" as they do every cycle.
