Bitcoin tried to rally on Tuesday, reaching up above the $50K briefly before pulling back, eventually closing the daily candle at support around $47K. This is an interesting candle because it shows a failed breakout and a higher low, indicating sentiment is flat but the buyers may be starting to recover a bit.
(March 2, 2021 11:30PM EST)
Short-Term:
Bitcoin failed breakout signals that while perhaps we're not ready to blast off to $60K just yet, perhaps the predominant selling is over. The 38.2% fib level around $47,246 has been quite supportive of late, and if Bitcoin can maintain this upward momentum and break above the $50K level, then we are back in an uptrend. Look for a daily close above $50K, or a decisive move higher. Like ETH, it looks like Bitcoin has found a good deal of bottom and is putting in a rounded-bottom bottoming pattern, which precludes a slow-at-first ascent leading to a more vertical breakout higher, ultimately forming the shape of a "U."
Long(er)-Term:
Bitcoin should grind back higher as it begins a larger W3 higher (potential W3 of W3). A conservative measured move of 1.612% of the micro W1 that just terminated around $58K measures up to the 2.272% Fibonacci extension level around $99K. A more aggressive move measuring 2.612% of the recent W1 would send Bitcoin up closer to $125K (literally off my chart above). Bitcoin will likely not only hit our projected price targets but exceed them due to higher than anticipated inflation and government Quantitative Easing on a huge scale, especially starting H2 2021. I think $100K is not only on the table but a high likelihood in late 2021. Even the Stock to Flow Model for Bitcoin is well on track, pointing to a $100K - $200K Bitcoin, and the S2FX model points to a nearly $300K BTC end of this cycle.
Support:
1st support: $45K.
2nd support: 50% fib around $43,800.
Floor: $40K.
Resistance:
Immediate-term = roughly $60K.
