Why Bitcoin Price Predictions Are Useless

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Is Bitcoin plunging to $20K or surging to $400K?

Everyone has an opinion from crypto analysts, influencers, traders, and wall street "experts." Then there's tech billionaires like Musk and Dorsey, and establishment figures like JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon. Guess what? No one knows (and they all have an interest in pumping or dumping to suit their own purposes.) It is useless to try and predict prices because the future is uncertain and the past is not always (and often is not) prologue when it comes to financial markets.

There is no science here.

Despite what the technical analysts say about candlesticks and death crosses and handles and cups, if any of these so called patterns indicated price movements, then everyone would trade them and then the pattern would cease to exist. 

So does anyone know anything about whether Bitcoin will be a valuable asset in the future?

There are so many unknowns baked into that question. Nation-state regulations could derail broader adoption. Other technological breakthroughs could create better-faster-cheaper-safer networks. A stablecoin failure could send everyone running for the doors ( though to be fair USDT and USDC are looking more stable with their stated underlying assets thee days.)

What we do know is that mainstream banks are climbing aboard the bitcoin train by offering futures. A bitcoin exchange traded fund (if approved in any developed market) would be huge for greater adoption. Mining is leaning green after the China ban. And smaller holders are growing in overall percentage of all bitcoin wallets. That means whale influence is weakening.

The only other certainty is that there will be plenty of short term volatility (lots of traders run with price appreciation and then take profits.) Over the longer term no one knows with any degree of certainty where it is going, but mainstream interest is certainly growing, and that is a good sign for longer term price appreciation. For a specific price target, a coin flip or dice toss is about as good as anyone's guess.

 

 

 

Regulation and Society adoption

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