??What happened in yesterday's auction? The situation with the shares of US regional banks looks ominous:
- PacWest: -36%,
- Western Alliance: -25%,
- Metropolitan Bank: -21%,
- HomeStreet: -15%,
- Zions Bank: -10%,
- KeyCorp: -7%,
- HarborOne: -6%,
- Citizens Financial: -5%.
Shares of regional US banks fell in price after the authorities closed the First Republic Bank. In the United States, at the official level, the risk of default to June 1 due to huge debts. Joe Biden is calling an emergency meeting with congressional leaders amid this risk.
The US government may run out of emergency measures due to reaching the national debt ceiling by June 1, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Congress. She is confident in the economic consequences of inaction, warning that it could cause severe hardship for American families and damage "US global leadership." In fact, the federal government can still scrape together some money and make it through two weeks after June 1st, and by mid-June it will be time for taxes to be paid, somehow making it through to the end of July. But after that, a default and a stoppage of the work of government bodies are guaranteed. Let me remind you that today the Fed must decide to raise the discount rate by 25 points, which will exacerbate the problems of private banks and lead to a massive outflow of funds to large banks. Also, do not forget that the total mass of deposits of the population is insured by the FDIC by only 2.5%. And this means that in the event of a large-scale banking crisis, literally everyone will be robbed of trillions of dollars. According to the current data set, bitcoin's unexpected surprise flight to the moon could take place in July. Because for Americans and not only there is no alternative to bitcoin and gold to save their savings. And although US congressmen turned to Jerome Powell with a demand not to raise the rate on today's FOMS, he is likely to raise it. They don't understand that the collapse of the regional banks is not a disaster for the Fed, but a desired result. Leaving 6 banks in the country is his goal. And in July, FedNow will arrive. Hello new digital world, no one will have anything left, but everyone will be happy.??
But we have grown not because the banks are falling, but the cue ball is a cool alternative and salvation. We will leave such tables of contents for adopshina and people who are not in the crypt. We have grown because we have increased the percentage of the forecast for not raising the rate by the Fed. From 9.1% to 14.9%. After all, right on the eve of the meeting, the Fed's hands are tied. Banks continue to fall, the markets expect that Powell against this background will not worsen the situation for the banking sector. This is what the market reacted to by rising quotes. After all, the rate below the forecast is a clear positive for risky assets. The market, as always, is trying to forecast the actions of the Fed. The chance that the rate will be left at the current values has increased, but will it really be so. The chance of this is still very low.
0.25 - fall (85.1% chance)
0 - growth (probability 14.9%)
