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Decoding Bitcoin's August Trends: What's Next?
Bitcoin’s journey in August has caught the attention of the crypto world. As a reminder of June 2022, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has people wondering about September. Doubts arise about problems below $25,500 and the lack of buy orders above $26,000.
The charts suggest weaker energy in the near term, possibly affecting the $25.2k level. This is different from the long-term neutral view. September could bring good news as the RSI suggests a possible comeback. But we need to be careful because going below $25.5k and going up above $26k might not be easy. That balance shapes the way forward.
Many indicators pointed to a local bottom. Open interest is being cleared, criminals were negative for 3 days, miners capitulation has passed, coins are still coming out of exchanges and STHs capitulated and sold at a loss last Thursday.
Bid on profit/loss is another indicator that shows bottoms when there is more Bitcoin at a loss than at a profit, we're not quite there yet. A balance of 6 million difference.
The next Bitcoin halving, scheduled to take place in approximately 8 months, has historically led to renewed interest in Bitcoin and preceded major bull markets.
?? Only 5.8% of Bitcoin is currently on exchanges, which is officially the lowest level crypto's top market capitalization asset has seen since Dec 17, 2017.
We also continue to see decent amounts of transactions of whales $ BTC (57.4 thousand per week).
The USD-JPY oscillated at around 145.70-146.10 on Powell’s remarks but gathered direction and rose to a new year-to-date (YTD) high of 146.63 before settling at around current exchange rates. Resistance on the upside is the 147.00 figure and the November 3 high at 148.45.
It should be said the Greenback (#USD) is staging a recovery, as shown by the US Dollar Index, which turned positive, sits at 104.360, gains 0.35%, underpinned by US Treasury bond yields, which are beginning to track higher.
?? Ethereum network has increased activity from large addresses during this dip below $1,650 and its highly volatile price conditions.
The amount of wallets with between $10 and $10,000 ETH rose again to 355,000, and transactions of more than $100,000 increased.
Base is the fastest L2 to grow to 100,000 users. This milestone was reached just 56 days after launch.
DeFi space has been one of the worst hit during the bear market.
As yields compressed and exploits ramped up, approximately $170B in deposits have left the DeFi ecosystem.
DeFi's TVL dropped by 80% in 2022 as incentive programs from L1s largely came to an end, Terra collapsed and $3B+ was lost to exploits.
Decreasing token prices led many DeFi protocols into a negative feedback loop where the yield offered to depositors (subsidized by tokens) decayed, leading to decreasing TVL, resulting in less perceived value for the protocol and so forth.
The FriendTech frenzy drove transaction count on Base to 1.4 million on August 21. That’s higher than Ethereum or the combined transaction counts of OP Mainnet and Arbitrum One.
However, as quickly as it rose, activity on the app has cooled, with the number of traders and volumes down 40% and 80% off their peak.
The 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) for Bitcoin price hovers around 5.61%, suggesting that these long-term holders are still in profit.
The 30-day MVRV reads -6.78% revealing that the August 17 crash has already caused these holders to capitulate their holdings.
?? A positive sign that cryptomarkets will recover is the fact that traders are increasingly referring to current market conditions as a bearmarket.
Historically, when traders show FUD, the likelihood of price increases increases considerably.
Last article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Rubikkav.
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