Bitcoin rallied Thursday, initially starting off slowly beneath $45K before ultimately rallying to a new ATH, reaching up above $48K for a near-grasp at $50K before pulling back a bit, closing the daily candle around the $47K level. Any time Bitcoin prints a new ATH is a bullish day, and with Bitcoin now within spitting distance of $50K, it's now a matter of when it'll happen and what the catalyst will be. Today's candle was bullish and, despite the long upper wick, shows resilience to the volatility, especially from the buy-side.
(February 11, 2021 7:30PM EST)
Outlook:
Bitcoin rallied again, reaching up to a higher high as BTC closes the ever-shrinking gap to $50K which is now merely a couple thousand dollars away from reality. One year ago, anyone who was not already in crypto would have told you you were crazy if you mentioned $50,000 Bitcoin in 2021. Now, the mainstream is starting to awaken that maybe crypto is here to stay.
Near-term, $50K is our price target, then $55K, which may not be resistance but marks a significant achievement: a $1 trillion BTC market cap, and then $60K which is a large, round psychological number and possibly a smaller-degree impulsive wave termination. All in all, I don't see why $50K would cause another 30%+ selloff, in fact I think there's more momentum than ever before. In the past week, I've gotten a number of private messages re: crypto from friends and acquaintances I haven't spoken to in months or even years! Our time has come, it's now a matter of managing your risk and, if you're still accumulating, setting buy orders at strategic levels to buy the dips before Bitcoin heads even higher. Anyone who avoided buying Bitcoin at $15K thinking it'll retrace back to $10-11K never got their opportunity; this is simply a game where you want to be long for the duration of the market, and the volatility is simply too strong to reasonably predict.
With today's news of BNY Melon and Twitter prepared to enter initial Bitcoin positions, the snowball that started small in early 2020 with MicroStrategy is now beginning to pick up speed as we careen higher and gather more and more people's attention.
That being said, the trend is up and Bitcoin is well within the range for a short-term dip on the road higher. Bitcoin's immediate term price target is $50,000, followed by $55,000 which would roughly equal a $1 trillion market for the digital asset alone. Above that, resistance at $60,000, and then every $10,000 until $100,000, which roughly coincides with my Elliott Wave Wave 3 projection from Monday.
In the meantime, we are simply in a buy the dips and HODL mode as Bitcoin grinds higher. If you're long the friend is your trend right now and as more newsflow comes out about large investors and big public companies like Tesla announcing their buying and adoption of Bitcoin with company funds, the green candles should continue to print. I highly doubt and have already bet that Tesla will not be the last public company to buy a substantial amount of Bitcoin to add to the companies balance sheet, so the real question is: who’s next?
Apple? Facebook? Slightly less likely because of their Diem project. Amazon? Google? Netflix? I think if anything, it would be a FAANG company, although MicroStrategy came out of nowhere so it really could be anyone. Either way, buckle up: it’s gonna be a wild ride.
Traditional Markets
In traditional markets, gold had another positive trading session, rising up to the $1,850 level before turning around and settling closer to $1,845. This is short-term bullish but gold needs to break above the 50 Day EMA in order to reestablish the uptrend that was broken late in 2020. Otherwise, a rejection for gold sending it lower would be good for the US dollar and possibly a negative factor for Bitcoin, which tends to trade similarly to gold and opposite the USD.
Support:
Look for tentative support at the $40K level which, now that we've broken above it as resistance indicates it should now be supportive. Below that, look for support at $35K and then the 50 Day EMA which is north of $31K and climbing.
Resistance:
Look for resistance at $50K, then $55K which roughly equates to a $1 trillion market cap for Bitcoin, then $60K, then every $10K until $100K.
