Greetings! Today, I will be going over today's large pump towards the upside and I will utilize technical analysis to predict the next steps.
Today's move (Long term bullish implications)
Today's pump caused the entire crypto market as a whole to go significantly in price, with the top altcoins going up around 7-11% in one day, which in my last post, is what I had predicted. The cause of this entire upside move was due to some news pertaining to Grayscale's victory.
This move as a whole makes my view of the longer term even more bullish now, because Grayscale's victory could lead into the creation of Bitcoin ETFs. If you weren't informed, the SEC moved the mandatory deadline for the decision on the most recent Bitcoin ETF application. This means that the decision will be made in around 2024, just in time for the Bitcoin halving. With Grayscale's victory (And with the bullish FED statements), we might have the most explosive bull market yet for crypto.
Technical Analysis
Outside of my larger time frame fundamental analysis, my technical analysis also seems bullish too, however, I would exercise some caution.
The move today managed to break through the 200-EMA and the falling wedge on the RSI. Also, the MACD indicator looks like it is preparing for an explosive move due to both of the lines making a cross with a green bar.
This means that as long as there is a confirmed daily candle close above the 200-ema, we can expect more upside coming from bitcoin in the following days. However, this does not mean that we are out of the woods yet. Afterwards, in order for bitcoin to progress above old levels, it would need to break through the old trend support now turned resistance line.
If the price fails to break the trend line resistance, then it would most likely form a sideways range between the 200 EMA and the trend line before breaking in either direction (Downside or Upside)
Potential Large Rally to 36K
Now that I've explained everything, ill now get into the evidence of possibility of Bitcoin going up to 36k.
- 1: Historical Bullish reaction when crossing the 200-EMA: Whenever bitcoin crossed the 200-EMA again after it was below it, it immediately resulted in a large bullish upside rally.
2: The Catalyst that brought bitcoin down to the 25.2k - 26k levels was fake: The primary reason why bitcoin crashed recently was due to fake news pertaining to Space-X selling.
- 3: Lack of bearish news: The only bearish news that can affect bitcoin currently is if the SEC bans more cryptocurrencies. I find that increasingly unlikely due to XRP currently winning.
This move, however, is highly unlikely.
My final conclusion based on the fundamental and technical analysis that I did today is that we will be most likely be seeing more upside (If there is a daily candle close above the 200-EMA) to at least the resistance trend line before going into a sideways range.
However, it is important to keep in mind that we are in a very volatile and changing market and to always keep an open mind to many different scenarios.
