Do repost and rate:
The Fed is probably near the end of its rate-hiking cycle, but does the ADP report risk upending the thesis that it's time to own stocks?
It’s time to be in stocks because the Fed is getting closer to the end of its hiking cycle. But did today’s ADP report just crash the “pivot party?”
Photographer: David Paul Morris/BloombergDaniel Tilles
If Friday's nonfarm payrolls number comes in anything like today's blowout ADP report, the Federal Reserve will not only be hiking this month, but (pick one) 1: possibly; 2: probably; 3: definitely again in September.
The 497,000 employment change versus an estimate of 225,000 sent the two-year Treasury yield above 5% and the 10 year to 4% for the first time since March. Stocks declined.
