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A Good Year So Far
Much has been said about the price of Bitcoin lately. It's funny how bears and bulls alike can point to the same information and draw different conclusions. But, nonetheless, it's worth pointing out that Bitcoin is up 13.58% on the year so far.
It's a quite bullish chart on this view. Obviously, hitting 19k today was a major milestone on the road to recovery. But the road to recovery is still quite long ahead to get back to 70k. Nonetheless, the year has kicked off in the right direction for Bitcoin bulls. If we zoom out on the all-time chart too, the trend is still bullish too, despite massive peaks and drawdowns.
Volatility is a feature of Bitcoin; the price moves fast. The all-time chart clearly illustrates this point. I saw the following "cheat sheet" posted, which is pretty well-circulated on investing message forums. If you compare the illustrated chart below to the all-time chart of Bitcoin, it would seem we are in the "disbelief" stage.
Does anyone think that this rally is going to last? We are all quite skeptical at this point, as the past two rallies in December and November have been squandered. So, will this be a sticky price movement or just another bear market rally? It perhaps should be noted that the past three times the RSI level of Bitcoin (the overbought/oversold level, where 0 represents extremely oversold and 100 represents extremely overbought) has been this low, it has been followed by establishing new all-time highs:
Furthermore, an article posted to NewsBTC cites the "Parabolic SAR" buy signal being triggered today.
Parabolic SAR is a technical indicator designed by J. Wells Wilder, Jr. and is used to detect changes in trend direction. The tool consists of a visual overlay of SAR dots that hover above or below price action, determining the direction of the trend.
When the SAR dots are tagged, it suggests that a trend might “stop and reverse” — which is precisely what SAR stands for. Therefore, it’s especially effective in timing entire and exits. Because the SAR dots travel higher or lower alongside the trend, they can be used reliably to set trailing stop losses.
A Bottom is In?
It's nearly impossible to call the bottom, especially amidst a bear market. What I will say is this -- there are a lot of signals that I'm seeing that could be indicative that the worst is behind us. It is certainly possible that the lows may be re-tested. As I have a long-term time horizon on Bitcoin and Ethereum, I am still using a DCA strategy for these two long-term hodlings. The way I see it, crypto is still on sale, and a bear market just represents an extended buying opportunity.
First Bitcoin Transaction Anniversary
Fourteen years ago, January 12, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto sent Hal Finney 10 BTC in the first ever transaction on the world's first decentralized peer-to-peer cryptocurrency network.
Finney wrote of Bitcoin speculation: "The danger is if people are buying bitcoins in the expectation that the price will go up, and the resulting increased demand is what is driving the price up. That is the definition of a BUBBLE, and as we all know, bubbles burst."
We have seen that bubble inflate and pop four times now. Yet each bull run is market by an all-time high. Perhaps one day each Bitcoin will be worth a million dollars, as Finney believed. He passed away in August 2014 and was the second person, Satoshi being the first, to download and run the Bitcoin Core software.
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