Bitcoin fell hard last week, dropping from near the highs around $60K to now around $45K, giving back all of the previous week's gains and more. This is a bearish candle, but Bitcoin is in a bull market and drops like these are to be expected. We'll be keeping our eyes on support levels, but see this as a buying opportunity, not a selling opportunity.
(February 28, 2021 7:30PM EST)
Short-Term:
Bitcoin's fall from $58K to $45K = ~23%, a relatively standard (if conservative) correction. This correction looks similar to Bitcoin's January correction in which Bitcoin retraced ~30% from $42K to $29K, only to relatively quickly turn around and resume higher a few weeks later. We're now over a week into this correction, indicating if this correction is to resemble January's BTC correction, then this should one should bottom this week if it hasn't already.
Buy the f****** dip.
Long-Term:
Bitcoin is completing a Wave 2 correction which could have a bit more downside before it terminates but not much. This would put in a local bottom and higher low on our longer-term chart, as seen above. Bitcoin is firmly entrenched in a decisive bull market and longer-term uptrend. As history has shown multiple times before, in this asset class and others, buying the dips and HODLing is the only way to make money in a bull market. The one thing you absolutely cannot do during a bull market is short-sell (or sell early). It's always okay to take profits, but shorting Bitcoin has long-proved a fool's errand. Upon completion of this corrective W2, Bitcoin should continue to $60K and then march towards $100K. After that, who knows, but based on my chart above's W3 projection, increasing volume, and reset RSI, I think up it's irresponsible to not be long in Bitcoin for the foreseeable future.
Weekly Highlights:
- First Bitcoin ETF listed in Canada
- Morgan Stanley plans USA ETF
- MicroStrategy bought >$1 billion more BTC
- BlackRock started “dabbling” in BTC
- Another $1.9 Trillion stimulus coming in March
- Bitcoin miners have started accumulating again, for the first time since the 27th of December (Glassnode)
- Another Bitcoin ETF will be launched in Canada by CI Global Asset Management
- MIT announces 4-year project to strengthen Bitcoin Network Security.
Strategy:
Buy the dips. HODL. Stake for passive interest.
Traditional Markets
The 10 Yr Yield rallied to yearly highs, lifting the US dollar to nearly $91 on the DXY and putting additional pressure on gold which finished the week in the low $1,700s.
Support:
50% fib around $43.8K
Major support at $40K; absolute floor.
Resistance:
Immediate-term = roughly $60K.
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