Ethereum was mostly flat on Thursday, initially falling to the 50 Day EMA before finding support and closing the daily candle a hair red. A pretty quiet day on ETH's front but if there was a silver lining it was finding support at the 50 Day EMA which is traditionally a good buying opportunity during bull markets.
(March 25, 2020 9:30 PM EST)
Short-Term:
ETH's surprise bearish breakdown from the ascending triangle has taken us back down to the 50 Day EMA which is historically an excellent area to initiate new longs as long as the uptrend is still intact, which it very much is. ETH can be a more volatile than Bitcoin and thus dip lower than the 50 Day line vs Bitcoin because of its smaller market cap and smaller cult of long-term HODLers, but still relatively closely tracks Bitcoin's price action most of the time. If ETH can find support and buyers step in around the 50 Day EMA, we could see a bounce higher and thus another higher low. Based on the historical tendency for the 50 Day EMA to be so supportive in bull markets, I'm inclined to believe this time will not be different. It is healthy for a market to correct and retrace as it indicates a mature and sustainable trend. Leveraged and especially overleveraged longs are typically the only victims here, or daytraders with tight stops who get washed out in the chop. This leads me to my next point, that it's simply easier to profit in crypto by buying on dips in bull markets, such as now, and taking profits later on at new highs when sentiment is extremely bullish.
ETH is further buoyed by bullish fundamentals and developments such as EIP-1559, sharding, and institutional adoption (Grayscale, etc.).
ETH/BTC:
ETH rallied a bit on Thursday erasing yesterday's dip to 0.03 by recovering to about the 0.031 level where ETH/BTC found resistance at the 200 Day EMA. Finding support at 0.03 is a good sign for ETH/BTC as it is the final support level before a precipitous fall to the next support region around 0.025, a bearish retracement in satoshis. This is not bearish in terms of ETH/USD as ETH can double or triple in USD price but maintain the same BTC ratio if BTC goes parabolic, as we have been expecting for Spring-Summer 2021. Like previous cycles, typically Bitcoin leads all of crypto and alts 'catch up' later, of which ETH would lead the altcoin pack. Typically, ETH doesn't peak in BTC or USD values until 2-4 weeks after Bitcoin puts in a market cycle top, giving us assurance that ETH is still relatively early in this bull market phase and that sub-$1,800 is excellent medium-long term value.
If ETH/BTC peaks around 0.1 or higher as it historically has done in previous crypto bull cycles, ETH is set up for a conservative 300%+ price appreciation from current levels ($5,400+).
From my perspective, all signs indicate it's probably wise to buy ETH or earn ETH now before prices continue to ascend in dramatic throughout the rest of 2021 and further. Buying ETH under $2,000 is like buying Bitcoin under $30K; not much higher than the previous ATH, and not likely to last much longer.
Support:
$1,600, the 50 Day EMA around $1,540, then floor at $1,400.
Resistance:
$2,000, then $2,500, then $3,000. Pay more attention to the ETH/BTC ratio for resistance levels.
