Ex-Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal says a chart that has tracked well in the last five years indicates Bitcoin () and crypto are very much on schedule to hit four billion users.
In a new video update, the Real Vision CEO says that crypto will likely see more than one billion users by the end of 2025.
Pal’s prediction is based on a model that compares the adoption rate of the internet during its early years versus crypto’s user growth rate since 2016 – when it first hit one million users.
“The internet, which was the fastest adoption of technology the world had ever seen, it grew by 76% per year and then slowed down after year eight to 43% a year.
Crypto has been growing at 137% a year. It’s now at 516 million users versus 187 million of the internet at the same stage.
Then what we did is assume that crypto just slows down its growth to the same as the internet. I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think it will be faster, but by the end of 2025, we get to 1.1 billion users.”
But if you look further out, Pal says he sees half of the world’s population adopting Bitcoin and crypto at the start of a new decade.
“If we look out further using the internet adoption growth and we slow down the trend rate of growth of crypto to the same as the internet going forward, we get to four billion users by 2030. That’s half the world’s population.
Now will this be perfect? It’s been pretty perfect so far, and I’ve been showing this chart for five years now. But let’s assume not. Either way, these numbers are simply staggering.”
