Nothing of the following blog post constitutes financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence. Not a financial advisor, just a rocket enthusiast.
I've made it no secret of my holdings in Sacramento-based Origin Materials (NASDAQ: ORGN). Hell, I've made 37 posts on the company here on PUBLISH0X and made its own tag. There's even a follower of those tagged articles. But all that's neither here, nor there.
So today, as the company announced its Q12023 earnings date, the stock price made a new milestone. Not one that is particularly becoming for the company, either. ORGN hit a new all-time low, touching $3.67 a share at one point during today's trade.
It can be spun one of many ways: price discovery, unfavorable market conditions, whatever. Quite simply, the way I see it, is that the company currently has no earnings. So, it's really quite difficult to quantify a reasonable valuation of the company. In a market which perhaps is pricing in recession, overall disappointing earnings, and continued rate hikes by the federal reserve, it's certainly not favorable toward pre-revenue companies.
What is clear is that the current trend for the stock is negative: ever since going public via reverse merger in June 2021, the trend has been down. Onlookers have been saying "show me, show me" and nothing has been shown...yet. Origin Materials is set to soon start-up its Origin 1 facility in Sarnia, Ontario. Really this news could come any day now, with commissioning of the plant having been underway for months now. Soon, a small fraction of the $9.3 billion worth of off-take agreements and capacity reservations will be translated to revenue. I say small because the $60M projected revenue for 2023 only includes six months of production at O1.
Two new updates have also been dropped recently:
- Origin Materials and SCGP Announce Strategic Partnership in Innovation and Sustainability to Explore Licensing Origin Technology for ASEAN-Based Plant
- Origin Materials and Minafin Group Launch Manufacturing Initiative for Origin's First Commercial Plant
Both of these updates affirm the fact that carbon-negative materials will soon be being produced and subsequently delivered out of Sarnia. The potential for licensing to SCGP is not included in the company's current financial projections and would be an added value for shareholders.
The company continues to add experienced talent to its team. Here is the resume of one of the newest Originals:
So, as the stock prices fails to "wow" -- I remain intrigued on the progress Origin Materials is making to ramping up its technology to industrial scale. Enough to keep buying the stock even, at a perceived extreme discount now. It may get even cheaper.
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