The last year in the Bitcoin market has been a rollercoaster ride that none of us could have ever imagined. It was at this time last year that the crypto market was in a frenzy when Terra began buying billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin to back their stablecoin UST. The possibilities were exciting, but most of all it was causing the price of BTC to soar. However, as we all know, the rug would soon be pulled out from beneath us. UST and Luna became de-pegged. This would begin the domino contagion of countless insolvencies in the market. Causing the 3rd party crypto lending ecosystem to nearly go extinct. All of this culminated with the FTX fraud. There was real doubt if Bitcoin and crypto would ever be able to recover from this. That perhaps this would be the final death blow to the industry.
At the end of 2021, Bitcoin’s price was around $15k and even thinking about the next bull run was taboo. As I just mentioned, the mood in the market was dark and depressing. Most people couldn’t even fathom thinking about new all-time highs in the next bull run. They were only hoping for a year of recovery and peace in the market. A break from everything that took place last year.
The general consensus was that Bitcoin’s price would see a slight recovery. Perhaps $25-$30k if we were lucky. At the time, this was a number that many of us would have been very happy with. These were the expectations I had for 2023.
But the year has gone differently than we all expected. Bitcoin jumped out of the gates and hasn’t stopped running. When confronted by FUD such as the US government beginning to attack the industry. It has been unfazed. Fueled by banking collapses, being an escape valve, and finally detaching from other financial assets. Bitcoin has never shined brighter. Every day, more and more people are waking up to its real value and use case.
For many people, one of the most disappointing factors of the last cycle was Bitcoin not sticking to PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow Model. His model has become a controversial topic in the Bitcoin space, projecting a BTC price of up to $1 million sometime between 2025–2028. According to his model, BTC’s price was supposed to reach $100k last cycle, but it fell short causing the market to lose trust in it.
The first thing you should know is that it is just a model, that should be used as a tool or reference rather than being relied upon. But there are also other factors that we need to consider. For example, the general consensus is that the last cycle was prematurely cut short due to covid, and drastically raising interest rates. However, most importantly, the insolvencies that ravaged the market could never have been predicted. Perhaps BTC was truly destined to reach $100k last year. We will never know.
Momentum is now on Bitcoin’s side. Something that wasn’t the case the last two years. Inflation has been rampant. People are losing trust in their government and currencies. CBDCs are coming. Banks have been collapsing left and right. Countries around the world are ditching the dollar. We are in a recession that has the potential to turn into a great depression. Perhaps the most bullish factor of all is that Bitcoin’s price has finally been reacting to these events. The reasons why it was created in the first place. It has already gone up by more than 100% this year and appears to be hungry for much more.
People in my generation aren’t interested in gold as an escape valve. They are turning towards Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. All of this has caused me to reconsider where Bitcoin’s price could go this year. Before, I thought reaching a new all-time high was impossible but now has a much higher chance. I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin reach $75k by the end of this year.
How about you? What is your Bitcoin price prediction this year?
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