Bitcoin rallied a bit on Wednesday, pushing up to $35K before giving back some of the gains, posting the third consecutive green daily candle this week. Bitcoin is bubbling back up towards the 200 Day EMA but still remains both the 200 Day EMA and 50 Day EMA, which is declining sharply now.
(July 7, 2021 8:30PM EST)
Short-Term:
Bitcoin remains in a technical short-medium term bear market after trading below both the 50 and 200 Day EMAs since mid-May. Bitcoin continues to find resistance around the $35K level which is now supported by slowly declining 200 Day EMA just above.If Bitcoin gets rejected by the $35K level, we could see Bitcoin retest support at $30K or even the local lows around $29K.
However, if you zoom out you'll see Bitcoin is still up bigly since last year and has only retraced 61.8% of this most recent macro impulsive wave higher. The only people who have lost money have bought in the last 6 months: aka retail noobs and institutions who don't understand crypto, or have a long-term investment horizon.
Bitcoin appears to be forming a pretty clear rounded bottoming pattern starting in May and which may complete in late July/early August. With the low apparently in at just under $29K, we should look for a short-term higher high to start to form the right-side of a "U"-shaped recovery. A confluence of resistances are consolidating in a fairly tight range between $35K - $40K. If Bitcoin can break above $40K, we could see a quick run to $50K with little resistance between there.
