I just finished watching this short video of Alessio Rastani with a quick update on BTC and its recent break out above the rising trend lines on the weekly chart, and as much as I respect Alessio's analysis, him being one of the few that I remember calling BTC's price at $18,000 a bubble that's close to burst, I do disagree to some extent to him, or lets say that he's not taking in consideration some key factors that are indeed influencing BTC's price, above all the charts and trend lines that one can draw.
Here's the video if you want to watch it and analyse the info for yourself:
First of all I find quite annoying that he is always pointing at the correlation of BTC with the stocks market(S&P 500), and that BTC decoupling from it recently is not a good sign and this sign might actually signal this break out as a false breakout, considering that the S&P 500 is not doing that good as BTC does. Well, at some point BTC has to decouple from the stocks market. I mean, the space is maturing, BTC is becoming an asset of its own, and there are definitely way different factors that are influencing its price comparing with the stocks influential forces.
One thing that he has got wrong, no doubt, is the signal that ETH has previously given to the market, meaning that when ETH got bullish, the rest of the market has followed suit, and since ETH currently failed to pierce trough the $420 resistance and show signs of bullishness means that BTC is not gonna do much better either. I doubt that in a bull market in crypto will ever be any other crypto, as the leader of the pack other than BTC, and I will tell you why, from my modest point of view of course. Yes, there are times, especially during bear markets and during consolidation times, when coins such ETH and even DOGE lead short term rallies, but to expect ETH to lead a bull market... Nope, not this time.
What he's not taking into account also, being actually the steel strong catalyst for a bull market in crypto, is the Bitcoin halving. If there wasn't BTC, there wouldn't be any crypto, and if there wouldn't be a halving occurring every four years there wouldn't be these cyclical boom and bust seasons, or call them bull and bear markets. It's that simple to check the BTC's life long chart and see how much the halvings have influenced Bitcoin's price performance over time. It's like you don't even need any other indicator other than the halving to have the big picture of where prices are heading to.
Moreover, hope I'm not offending anyone with this one, as I have no intention in trashing TA, me being a total noob for that matter, but drawing lines on a chart and arranging them has a bit of subjectivity tied to it that we need to take in consideration. I also find quiet annoying to simply chart a time frame in 2020 and compare it with other time frame from the year of 2016 and try and find similarities. Again, it's THE DAMN HALVING that spins the wheels and no crypto pro, amateur, or enthusiast should not overlook these important dates and catalysts. Hence when cropping time frames from different years and comparing them we should definitely pin halving times on those charts.
Now, Alessio might be right and BTC will probably get back inside the trendlines, as a tamed dog, and replicate Alessio's selected 2016 similar time frames and rising trend lines, OR finally give him the weekly confirmation at the end of the week that the break out is for real, but none the less he is missing indeed some key factors determining the unfolding and magnitude of this BTC bull market. I would also advise him to have a look at PlanB's(@100trillionUSD on twitter) "Bitcoin stock to flow model S2F" and get a macro perspective. I am definitely not trashing Alessio's work as he has often proven to be a good trader, but he definitely misses some key factors when analyzing BTC's price actions. There's much more than short term trendlines, S&P 500 correlations, *false prophets(like ETH) leading the bull market and so on, that need to be taken into account.
Don't forget about the halving Alessio! It's probably the strongest catalyst for BTC's bull markets and it wouldn't hurt to dig its history a bit and chart it. You will definitely find quite interesting correlations over there and patterns that shouldn't be overlooked. By the way, I will share this leofinance post on Alessio's youtube video in the comments section and hopefully get his attention to this platform. It's definitely worth having him here.
Thanks for attention,
Adrian
Initially Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
