Morning‌‌ ‌‌Update—May 25th—Macro and Crypto Markets

Do repost and rate:

It’s been a long-time coming but Ray Dalio, the manager of the biggest hedge fund, finally said (admitted?) that he owns “some bitcoin”. The revelation came during a conference where he added “The incentive right now to hold dollars is low. No interest being paid. Even bonds don’t yield much. Eventually people will go to almost anything else — stocks, gold, bitcoin, real estate.”

 

While there are other things happening (discussed in a moment) this is a big event and will be sure to bring a ton of his followers into the crypto space.

 

We also heard from Elon, yesterday. Maybe the whole purpose behind the previous bitcoin miners comment was to lead to this initiative where he says: “Spoke with North American Bitcoin miners. They committed to publish current and planned renewable usage and to ask miners worldwide to do so. Potentially promising.”

 

On the back of that, asset manager ‘One River’ just filed for a carbon-neutral Bitcoin ETF in the US.

 

Less supportive, though, is HSBC’s CEO saying that “Bitcoin is not for us”. Fair enough, if a broader adoption is to happen, it won’t happen for everyone nor all at once, but, I feel like, at this point, the trend is unstoppable.

 

Away from bits of news, you know I like to look at data providers and the interesting chart of day comes from Glassnode, showing the realized loss from bitcoin traders. The shocking thing is: the capitulation during this retracement eclipsed all other bearish move, including March of last year and including the 2018 bear market. 

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In my opinion, it doesn’t get more bullish than that, in a few weeks, we’ve already reached and outpaced the fear, the loss, the pain that much larger events caused. Ultimately, I see that as: we might be done with the pullback already and are ready for the long-term investors, the holders and the new entrants to go higher.

 

Right now, BTC prices have moved up slightly, regaining 10% to close the session at $38,500. The BTC dominance remains higher, at 44, suggesting that while alts are also in the green, they’re performing as well -not worse, not better, than BTC.

 

There is some outperformance out there though, on the session, from coins I hinted at in this briefing and on twitter. I’m thinking of MKR, AAVE, NANO and of course, ETH with a massive 25%.

 

 

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