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If you’re looking at traditional markets and wondering what’s driving them, it seems that the Fed meeting is driving things. Ahead of the event investors were buying risk but now, with rumours easing bond-buying policy, investors are selling it. Equities fell, gold fell, oil is falling (probably for other reasons) and the only thing holding steady is bonds.
It’s in this environment that BTC evolves, currently remaining above 40K but definitely not in a confident way. The weekend pushed us higher but yesterday’s candle shows wicks above and below and a small body, meaning prices moved up and down only to end back up where they started.
Alts are following on, with some outperformance for coins like GRT, MATIC or TERRA but also some underperformance when looking at DOT, XTZ or COMP.
I am really looking at the BTC Dominance index. If you overlay Ichimoku clouds, you can see we’ve crossed inside a very long-winded red zone but this actually hints at the dominance changing the trend. If it were to cross over, BTC would be the stronger player while alts disappoint.
You know I like to look at on-chain data and fun charts. Two caught my attention this morning.
One chart shows the price deviation from its 11-year trend (so essentially BTC’s existence) and shows we are below it. It also shows that we typically don’t stay too long below it, hinting at a continuation of the broader bull market we’ve been in. Naturally, I want to remind that those data points are true until they’re not.
A second chart, more short-term but also supportive, looks at outflows of crypto-linked investment products. Outflows are bad, as it means people are selling, but at this point the outflows are reduced, suggesting that people are less eager to part with their BTC exposure.
It was also fascinating to see that a survey of 100 hedge fund chief financial officers globally shows that they expect to hold an average of 7.2% of their assets in cryptocurrencies, in five years’ time. This is of course far out… and at the same time not really. This would equate to $312 B in new capital flowing in.
Banks are aware of the shift and looking to capitalise on that. We’ve heard of many institutions looking at offering custody or just trading. Just yesterday, Goldman Sachs is expanding its crypto trading activity to Ether options.
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