Narratives can change pretty quickly. Earlier last week, concerns about the economy or the delta variant pushed equity indexes down. On Friday, though, those same indexes reached record highs on better-than-expected jobs data. During the risk-on session, bonds were sold, pushing the 10-year yield back above 1.3%. Gold along with silver swan-dived to fall a massive 6%, all the way down to $1,700.
Some people say BTC is the new/digital gold. I’ll let you make of that what you will but on the weekend, it did not fall, rather it continued to rise. A lot of people were calling for a pullback within the familiar 42K-32K range but instead, BTC rose about 10%, from Friday’s open to this Sunday’s close, currency hovering above $44,000.
Currently, the BTC dominance is holding up, at 47, but I have this feeling that it will end up dropping back down in the coming weeks and months. Alts are currently trying to match BTC’s advance. Some coins kind of succeed, I’m thinking of ETH, DOT, VET; others fall and indeed underperform like MATIC, STX, LINK, or XTZ.
In broader terms, the question one should ask oneself is: is this a relief rally or the start of another leg higher. I lean towards the latter. In the meantime, it’s interesting to look at exchange data and what it suggests.
Coinbase premium has been on a steady and strong rise, which suggests that institutions are buying relatively large amounts.
Another chart which is particularly significant if you link it to the above is the exchanges reserves that continue to drop, hinting at people buying BTC then taking them off exchanges to hold, alleviating selling pressure and hinting at a long-term bullish view.
Away from onchain data, two pieces of news came through, relating to BINANCE with: 1. The resignation of their US CEO and, 2. The restriction of derivatives products in Hong Kong. Both highlight that the company is feeling the regulatory pressure that’s been piling on in the past few weeks and months.
The other thing we’re all looking at is the infrastructure bill currently being formulated in the US. Initially, it was going to have stringent requirements for KYC and taxation of users across the whole ecosystem which is just not viable. After a strong push-back it looks like it was changed to exclude miners and proof-of-stake projects. Let’s see how that goes.
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