Monero Current Price: $154.9
In the last 24 hours, Monero has been noticeably less volatile. According to Kraken, Monero saw swings Friday from $142.4 to $163.9 and finished at $155.8, whereas Saturday saw swings from $151.7 to $158.4, finishing down $0.9 (-0.2%) at $154.9. Ok, cool story - but what does this mean for the future price of Monero (XMR)?
We can see this decreasing volatility as the market increases the acceptance of Monero's recent gains. The low dips are raising up, and a firmer floor is settling in. With recently proposed regulatory changes from the US Treasury, privacy will likely be a growing concern in the coming months. Look to see Monero decrease in volatility and ride a slower but more monotonic bull wave upwards. Monero is still up 5.1% on the week, 28.2% on the month, and 227.5% on the year, and as more crypto users start questioning their privacy rights, the demand for Monero will increase.
Analysis: Monero is stabilizing its price floor and decreasing volatility (24-hour range of $6.7 from a previous 24-hour range of $21.5). Look for volatility to further decrease before the next leg up. If the price trades with a moving 24-hour range of less than $3 (2%) then the price will likely start to slide upwards. The most important thing is that the realized value needs to keep increasing. If you buy 1 Monero at $40 and someone buys 1 Monero at $160, then the average paid value for Monero is $100. This puts stress on a price if it gains too fast. If there is a wide gap between the average realized price and the market price, then a correction may occur. But, if the average realized price meets or exceeds the market price, then the market will tend to increase. For example, we can see this with the current bull run in Bitcoin. In 2017, the price increased rapidly, but there was significantly less infrastructure and trading volume. Thus, while trading near $20,000, most people hadn't paid nearly that much. This time, many large institutions were trading and HODLing around $15-18k, setting the average realized price higher and nearer to the market price.
Prediction: 0-2% gains on Sunday 12/20/20 and 3-5% gains (finish above $160) on the week ending 12/26/20.
