Despite not exhibiting the immediate bullish response many had anticipated in the wake of the Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals, Bitcoin's price has seen a remarkable surge of 100% over the past year.
However, the ETF-approvals set a precedent for Bitcoin as an asset class and with the next Bitcoin halving expected midway in April this year, there is plenty of reason to be positive over this year’s price development.
Investors Expecting a Bullish 2024?
Most predictions by institutions and experts within and outside the crypto sphere, forecast that BTC will soar greatly in 2024.
I have collected a large number of public calls and predictions which I will present below.
Institutional Forecasts
- CoinFund: $250,000 - $500,000
CoinFund, a prominent venture capital firm in the crypto space, holds one of the most bullish predictions. In an email to CNBC, Seth Ginns, the company's managing partner, mentioned that BTC could rally up to $500,000 in 2024. He cited factors such as an inverse correlation with the dollar and yields, BTC Spot ETF inflows, and the potential approval of Ether Spot ETFs later in the year.
“Bitcoin has a strong inverse correlation with the dollar and real yields, and both are now going down. We also expect the follow through inflows post-launch of the BTC spot ETF, as well as growing excitement around the likely approval of ETH (ether) spot ETFs later in 2024, will be quite meaningful.”
- Bernstein: $150,000
Private wealth management firm Bernstein predicts that BTC could reach $150,000 by 2025. This estimate was based on the possibility of an ETF approval, which has now materialised. According to a note shared by Bernstein's analyst Gautam Chhugani last year, ETFs are expected to attract approximately 10% of Bitcoin's supply.
“You may not like Bitcoin as much as we do, but a dispassionate view of Bitcoin as a commodity, suggests a turn of the cycle.”
- Pantera Capital: $148,000
Pantera Capital conducted an analysis of the shift in the stock-to-flow ratio. The findings revealed that the upcoming halving in 2024 is poised to exert a more substantial influence on diminishing the new supply percentage (47%) compared to the 2020 halving (43%).
“The next halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024. Since most bitcoins are now in circulation, each halving will be almost exactly half as big a reduction in new supply. If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see bitcoin rising to $35k before the halving and $148k after.”
- CoinShares: $141,000
Following the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF, the price might rally up to $141,000 within the next 12 months based on a Fund Flows Model published by CoinShares' Head of Research James Butterfill.
The foundation of the model rests on a cautious assumption, as indicated by Galaxy's , suggesting that spot Bitcoin ETFs could constitute a market valued at $14.4 trillion. If merely 10% of the investors holding these funds decide to allocate 1% of their wealth, the resulting capital influx would exceed $14.4 billion in the first year.
- Matrixport: $125,000
In a note sent out last year, Matrixport predicted that BTC's price will rally up to $125,000 by the end of 2024 based on previous cycle price actions.
“Historically, the years when Bitcoin mining rewards were halved were generally bullish: 2012 (+186%), 2016 (+126%), and 2020 (+297%). As miners tended to hoard Bitcoins before each halving, prices increased by +200%, which would project Bitcoin reaching $125,000.”
- Standard Chartered: $100,000
Last year, Standard Chartered doubled down on its prediction that BTC’s price will hit $100,000 by the end of this year.
Some of the factors cited as potential bullish catalysts by the bank include “turmoil in the banking sector in March this year that helped to “re-establish Bitcoin’s use as a decentralised scarce digital asset,” approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF and the expected Bitcoin halving event.
- ETC Group: $100,000
According to ETC’s Group 2024 outlook, Bitcoin’s price could hit $100,000 this year. This prediction is based on several factors including the halving, Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics and adoption curve.
“Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics imply that BTC’s supply is significantly scarcer, and accumulation has been more pronounced this cycle than during the last cycle.”
- Bitwise: $80,000
Bitwise expects BTC's upward trajectory to continue into 2024, with the price surging past $80,000, based on two major catalysts: Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals and the halving event.
“Bitcoin outperformed all major asset classes in 2023, rising 128% while the S&P 500 returned 21%, gold returned 12%, and bonds returned 2%.2 We expect that trend to continue in 2024, with bitcoin trading above $80,000 and setting a new all-time high.”
- VanEck: All-time High
One of the 15 crypto market predictions by VanEck is that Bitcoin will climb back to its all-time high in Q4, 2024. The main argument supporting this prediction is the political developments expected to take place; around 45% of the world’s population, including the U.S. will go into elections this year.
“Bitcoin will climb a Presidential-sized wall of worry. The percentage of the global population voting in legislative and presidential elections will hit an all-time high above 45% in 2024. This high level of important elections augurs high volatility and the prospect of significant changes.”
- Messari: $600,000 in the long term
In the 2023 crypto thesis report, Messari acknowledges that it might be difficult to predict BTC’s price in a shorter time frame. However, based on the ‘digital gold’ narrative, this crypto analytics firm predicts BTC’s price could eventually soar up to $600,000.
“We probably won’t see another 100x for bitcoin, but the asset could easily outperform other established asset classes once again in 2024. Eventual parity with gold would yield a price per BTC of over $600,000.”
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