Recent edition of Bitfinex Alpha Report revealed the current situation of HODLers in the face of the fall in Bitcoin prices. For now, reliable sources show that investors have taken a strong stance that selling isn't exactly dominant.
HODLers, also known as “long-term Bitcoin holders”, are not flexing in the face of the situation that the crypto market is going through right now. According to data published by Glassnode, around 4.3 million BTC held by HODLers are in losses. Which means 22.2% of the outstanding offer in percentage terms.
Despite the considerable unrealized losses they have experienced, most of these “dipped” cryptocurrencies are holding steady, reflecting strong resolve among the investors involved.
This trend is also reinforced by the Bitcoin supply last active over a year ago, which shows that the percentage of the total number of coins that have not moved for a year or even longer is at all-time highs.
This indicates that Bitcoin is increasingly being used as a buy-and-hold asset, as more than 68.45% of the total supply, which equals 13.27 million of the 19.4 million BTC in circulation, has not been transferred. in more than a year.
The growing trend that is present among investors to hold, is a sign of a change in attitude towards ownership of Bitcoin. In short, this metric registers significant minimum levels during the peaks of the cycle and reaches significant maximum levels at the beginning of the bullish periods. This was evidenced when it reached 48.07% in February 2013 and 61% in January 2016.
Bulls Placed 84% Of Bets
The open interest for the May 26 options expiry is $2.26 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls were expecting a Bitcoin price above $29,000. These traders were caught by surprise as Bitcoin dropped 10.9% between May 6 and May 12.
The 0.38 put-to-call ratio reflects the imbalance between the $1.64 billion call (buy) open interest and the $630 million in put (sell) options.
However, if Bitcoin’s price remains near $26,500 at 8:00 am UTC on May 26, only $67 million worth of these call options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $27,000 or $28,000 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.
Ethereum Deposits Are Stable
The Ethereum network’s limited processing capabilities have been causing high gas fees, which greatly reduces the demand for smart contract usage. For the past five weeks, the average transaction fee has remained above $8, although at first sight, no impact was felt.
The total value locked (TVL) in the network remained stable at 15.1 million ETH versus four weeks prior, but it is nearing the lowest levels since August 2020. As a comparison, the TVL on the BNB Smart Chain in BNB terms was essentially flat in the same period, while TRX deposits on the Tron network declined by 12%.
Data Shows Drop Leverage
Ethereum quarterly futures are popular among whales and arbitrage desks. However, these fixed-month contracts typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are asking for more money to delay settlement.
As a result, ETH futures contracts in healthy markets should trade at a 4 to 8% annualized premium — a situation known as contango, which is not unique to crypto markets.
According to the futures premium, known as the basis indicator, Ether professional traders have avoided leveraged longs (bullish bets) for the past four weeks. Moreover, not even the brief rally toward $2,000 on May 6 was enough to flip those whales and market makers into bullish sentiment.
Whales Spotted Massive Transactions
Cardano (ADA) whales were spotted conducting massive transactions on Monday, a move that has earned ADA a place among the best-performing Layer-1 (L1) tokens this week. Based on the chart below, the number of ADA-related transactions went as high as 12,360 on May 22, representing a 146% spike from the 5,020 whale transactions recorded on May 13.
IntoTheBlock's large transactions metric determines the daily number of transactions exceeding $100,000, with the above chart showing that the last time Cardano recorded such an enormous whale activity was around May 2021.
Considering previous Cardano price rallies have been preceded with increased activity among whales, ADA investors should expect more gains in the next few days.
Holders Recording Net Losses
Nevertheless, while Cardano price leaped, Santiment's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric indicates that most ADA investors still hold significant losses.
The MVRV metric determines investors' net financial position by comparing their purchase prices to the asset's current market value. From the chart above, with Cardano price at $0.371, investors who acquired ADA in the last 30 days are holding 5.331% in losses.
Typically, as investors avoid selling until the asset's price approaches its break-even point, ADA traders will likely continue consolidating their Cardano holdings over the next few days as they wait for the cost to equal revenue.
Social Volume Rises
Based on data from crypto intelligence tracker Santiment, discussions about LTC20 are increasing, pushing the asset in a “crowd discovery” phase where traders show growing interest in Litecoin.
Volume Rises Steadily
The value moved on the Litecoin blockchain increased as crowd participation and interest among traders climbed. Since May 8, there has been a steady rise in Litecoin’s on-chain transaction volume.
According to Brian Quinlivan, director of marketing and on-chain expert at Santiment, if transaction volume continues to increase, it would be a sign of increasing interest from large wallet investors or “big players” in the ecosystem.
Volume of unique addresses interacting on the Litecoin network has recently skyrocketed, hitting a one-year peak in the second week of May. While LTC price bottomed, addresses were scooping up the altcoin at a discount ahead of the halving event.
Active address count has decreased over the past week, but experts expect a rebound as the halving event comes closer.
Whales Likely To Push
Rising anticipation surrounding bullish on-chain metrics and the upcoming halving event likely mean that average trading returns on the short and mid term may cool down before a recovery, Quinlivan says.
Within two months of the halving event, around mid-June, Quinlivan expects a spike in traders’ anticipation surrounding LTC and argues that whales are likely to push its price to a $100 bullish target before a final dip or correction in the asset. Litecoin traded at around $91.8 at the time of writing, up 0.8% in the last 24 hours.
Whales are likely to drive a Litecoin rally to $100 as there are waves of between 500 and 600 transactions exceeding $1 million in value on the LTC network, daily for a few days before declining 95% in the following week. This activity is typical of periods of accumulation, followed by profit-taking by whales on the Litecoin network.
Disclaimer: this article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades involve risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
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