Bitcoin fell again on Thursday, initially rallying a bit before turning around and continuing lower to around the $52K level. This is a bit of a hammer with a tail down to around $50K which should offer support, else Bitcoin will tumble a bit further.
(March 25, 2021 8:30PM EST)
Short-Term:
Bitcoin's weakness continues as it approaches the lower end of its current $10K range around $50K. I have said a while ago that once Bitcoin breaks above the $20K - $30K region, it'll probably start trading in $10,000 ranges, in which it has been oscillating amongst now for about a month now. $50K should offer support and an opportunity for a bounce, as should the 50 Day EMA just below around $47K. Historically, the 50 Day EMA has played a critically important support role and indicator for a short-term bottom in Bitcoin bull markets, so we expect this time shouldn't be any different. Worse-case scenario, Bitcoin can technically even put in a double-bottom around ~$43K without creating any cause for concern. However, if Bitcoin breaks below $43K and ultimately $40K, the overall uptrend could be in major jeopardy.
I'm not discouraged by the bearish price action as we are still well within a larger macro uptrend and bull market driven by fundamentals. Additionally, from a technical standpoint Bitcoin has continued to print higher highs and higher lows. It's easy to look at the recent price action and see that Bitcoin is down almost 20% from its ATH around $62K, however it's important to zoom out and note that Bitcoin is up ~1,000% over the last 12 months.
Support:
Previous local resistance around $52K, then psychological support around $50K, then the 50 Day EMA around $47K should be our floor. A break below $43K and especially $40K would be a major red flag.
Resistance:
$60K, then $70K, then $10K intervals up to $100K.
