The price of BTC dropped below the 200 SMA for 17 days now. Is this the sign that the bull run is over and the bears take over?
Let?s look at 3 different scenarios:
1. The Bull Scenario
The low BTC price is due to the recent market manipulation by whales, who want to get their hands on some cheap BTC before the rest of the bull run. Looking back on the last cycles a lot of bull run should be left this cycle.
If the big boys are buying the dip it is probably a good idea you buy some too.
2. The Bear Scenario
The low BTC price after the massive correction and the consistently drop below the 200 SMA indicate that we are in a bear market.
But we already had the massive correction of almost 60%, so there is a good chance that we more or less have the worst behind us and it is also a good time to buy BTC in preparation of the next bull run. Yes looking back on the previous cycles it is too early for a new bull run, but it also was too early for the bull run to end.
If history does not repeat itself, there is a good chance we have the big correction of this cycle behind us. Meaning the long time hodlers have a good buying opportunity right now.
3. The Worst Case Scenario
The recent drop was the beginning of the end and the whole crypto space is a bubble. The BTC price will fall (almost) to 0 and Warren Buffet was right again. Then of course now would be an awesome opportunity to leave the sinking ship and cash out instead of buying more BTC.
The fundamentals of BTC (new wallets, adoption, the recent news about upcoming BTC-ETFs, Institutions buying in on BTC and El Savador becoming the first country to push a bill, making Bitcoin legal tender) are better than ever. In my opinion this makes the third scenario very unlikely, and favorites the first over the second scenario. Let?s say 60% for the bull case, 39% for the bear case an 1% for the worst case, making me 99% sure to buy more BTC right now. This is just my opinion and not financial advise.
So there is a good point to make, that it is a good idea to buy BTC.
But is it the right thing to do - ethically?
- BTC is using a lot of energy, some of it comes from coal, which is a threat to the environment.
- BTC is also a threat to the current Fiat-System.
- Investing in BTC is not the same as investing in a company, that tries to make the word a better place.
Is it a threat to the environment and future generations?
Would it destabilize the Fiat-System and the nations depending on it?
Should you rather invest in a company which is inventing useful technology helping people?
Cryptocurrencies and have the potential to change the world, but do we really want that change?
Let?s talk about it and welcome to Crypto Ethics.
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