Last week we managed to almost touch the 50K several times which is also the extended Fibonacci 4,618. This week BTC starts with a bearish candle and a bearish divergence. The rsi is currently still experiencing support from the ema but whether it will hold we will see on the lower timeframes.
daily chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/zRKeCZke/
On the 4 hour chart we see a rising wedge (bearish pattern) developing where volume is declining. The ema55 is also starting to weaken but the ema100 and 200 are quietly continuing to rise. So short term the strength is waning a bit but long term there is still power in it. The rsi is also below the ema and is currently hanging at the 50 level and does not look very strong.
It would not surprise me if the inefficiency block is still to be filled. This one also has confluence with the supply zone and could be a good target for the rising wedge.
4h chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/JabZxys3/
Here we see a breaker (marked in yellow) and when we draw the Fibonacci tool over it, we see a golden pocket developing around the ema55 where there is a good chance that it will be tested bearish. The target for a short, the Fib -1.618, also falls exactly in the inefficiency block and just above the supply zone. Quite a bit of confluence! Also the rsi is currently moving below the ema and 50 level which could be a confirmation for a move down.
1h chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/ApyzMXRO/
Conclusion:
As always we look at the bullish and bearish side as I don't want to be guided by emotion. If BTC can close shortterm above 48633 and flip that level into support then I could start looking cautiously at the resistance level at 50K. Until then I consider it more likely that we will fill the inefficiency block and that would mean a drop of 10 - 18% which in a bull market is not so crazy at all. If that level is also lost then there is a chance to drop to 37K - 37.7K.
