Hi everyone,
Bitcoin is very boring lately and everyone is waiting for a big move. It seems to be getting closer and closer, so I want to check out if the big move will go to the upside, or rather to the downside. No one really knows what will happen (except the big players), but we can always give a try with technical indicators.
The first chart is a simple weekly chart of BTC :
Bitcoin is moving inside the green channel for a long time now (2,5 years) and if my channel is correct we actually broke out to the upside already with a retest of the channel that is so far support. This is normally very good and bullish, but I remain very cautious because my channel might be off and we might still be inside the range if you draw the green channel with the red wick you see in the middle of the range. Volume is not great and this is needed if you have a convincing break out. This is why I am very cautious. However you cannot deny that we are once again trying to go upwards above 10.5K. What I like as well is the yellow line and how it holds steady as support for now. We saw during the Covid-19 crash that we broke to the downside, but we did manage to get back above it quite easily. Maybe the crash was an anomaly and BTC was supposed to follow this yellow line as support in time.
I am now going to show daily charts with different indicators that show a more bullish outlook in my opinion. This does in no way mean that we will just move to the upside, but I do feel that it is good to show them.
Here you see the indicator Hash ribbons that I like to use. It shows miner capitulation and Buy signals that are very often very profitable ! You can go on Tradingview.com and check it out. You can go back in time and you will see that this indicator is very reliable.
Anyway we had a miner capitulation around the 8700 $ level around the 25th of May 2020. This was the first one after the halving of BTC and this is good news. You can see right now that the red line is moving upwards day after day and we are getting very close to a BUY signal ! Once it crosses over the grey line and it turns green, you will see the blue BUY signal.
Here you see the indicator CCI (Commodity Channel Index) and the OBV indicator (On Balance Volume). OBV is one of my favorite indicators and shows what smart money is doing. You can see with the OBV that it is still moving upwards slowly while price is kind of hoovering around in between 9K and 10K. This is a good sign for me that we want to move upwards. The CCI has a range (dotted lines). If it goes above the range we are usually overbought and if we go below it usually means oversold. This indicator works pretty well and you can always test it. What I really like was seeing the CCI going downwards while price was remaining above the little yellow line I drew. The line was holding support and CCI went all the way to touch the lower dotted line area which means almost oversold. For me we were ready to move upwards and we did towards 9600$. Now I am hoping we will move the CCI back downwards while price is going to stay above the 9450 $ area. This would give us room to move towards the next step which would be to claim the 9800/9900$ area.
The last indicator that I want to show is the Stochastic RSI. It showed as well we were getting oversold and thus a move upwards was expected. Right now it looks bullish for more upwards momentum and has a lot of room to move. Personally I would like to see us moving sideways again for a couple of days to reset it a little bit before a next move to the upside.
All in all it looks pretty good when you look at these indicators (the accumulation/distribution indicator and the Chaikin Money flow on the daily are looking good as well !). However there are also bearish indications like the BITMEX funding rate. This indicator is pretty damn strong and shows you if more people are long or short on Bitmex. If more people are long it would mean we would see some sort of dump (long squeeze, liquidations) and if there are more shorts, you would see a pump to liquidate shorts. This is how Bitmex makes its money and they trade against you ! Right now we are seeing more longs than shorts (first day in a while) and this is for me a bad sign. Preferably I would like us to move slowly downwards towards the 9450$ area. This should flip it again to more shorts and we will reset some indicators like the CCI and the Stochastic RSI for another move upwards.
If you know of more bearish indications let me know ! I always like to see both sides to make up my mind.
Altcoins are doing very well recently and are showing to me that we have reached a bottom for them. Traders are getting excited with altcoins and you can see some very nice gains. Gains are increasing heavily for them this cycle and that is very positive news. It tells me that we are getting closer towards a real bull run. When I look at a lot of cryptocurrencies, I do however see overbought conditions and bearish divergences appear. This could indicate that we are going to see a pull-back for them before our next cycle upwards. Overbought conditions can however last for quite some weeks, so there is still room to move upwards, if BTC was finally to make a big move with volume to the upside. However if BTC is going to dump towards the low 8K's, 7K and 6.5K, you will see altcoins dump heavily as well and this will completely reset everything for the next big cycle upwards. By the way one little thing to mention is that if BTC can hold 6.5K, we would actually see a very nice inverted head and shoulders on the weekly chart and this would be extremely bullish !
Let me know what you think about BTC and altcoins ! I have a feeling we are getting closer and closer towards a bull run and if BTC can break 10.5K I am going to open a champagne bottle !
