In stock terms when a market starts going up, even when all the news and all the opinions are negative, it is called climbing a wall of worry. It could be what is happening with crypto right now. I mean come on! Each day the news seemed to be more ridiculous causing understandable fear, yet BTC and ETH were like mountains, parting the clouds and hardly moving in the case of BTC and actually quite a bit off the lows in the case of ETH (and there certainly has been some positive fundamental news there!).
So for a while now I've been wondering if the bottom was in. We had roughly the level drop and time duration of past bear markets, and when crypto stopped setting new lows even with the horrible news, it seemed like a positive sign. Perhaps everyone who had to sell did, and the traders were all hedged or going negative (hence part of this current move is short covering, or needing to unwind that negative bet). And certainly, even here and on youtube, you saw the "experts" all risk averse and predicting more pain to come. They might be right, but if that is consensus it is often profitable to have a position on the other side of consensus as the "talking heads" already had their negative positions before encouraging you to also be a perma bear.
What could go wrong? Macro getting worse (Fed. too tight too long, though a recession might hurt crypto less than stocks) and of course a "black swan" event which by its nature it impossible to predict. But at some point it makes sense to be positioned, or start accumulating a position, to take the other side of the bear trade and get ready for the new bull, which I do believe will start at some point this year. Falling dollar help? Probably. Any more FTX fallout? Maybe but that also seems to be hedged by the market.
This doesn't mean we are off to the races and we'll be seeing new highs, but it does mean to make sure you are ready to be positioned for the next sustained move, which at some point will be up. Let's hope so for all our sakes ;)
