How to Gamble for a Living: High Risk is the real Low Risk

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Betfury was the first to openly incentivise high wagers at low risk through their BFG tokens. The more you wager - the more dividends you get.

It's also free BNB now too.

If you're unfamiliar with Betfury check out their site here and read up on BFG token staking.

My casino of choice is BC Game though. Sign up and get free coins every day with the Lucky Spin.

The more you wager at low risk odds - the lower the payout. It's universally recognized in gambling circles that often times the safest bet isn't the best bet.

Despite the moniker of "low risk" - there's nothing low risk about it as a betting method. For a simple example take the following:

My goal is to make 1$ out of 10$ in my bankroll. For this test let's say my 1$ is 0.00000100 DOGE. I don't test these methods with large amounts but the results would be identical- or rather in the long run the data would even out. Let's look at a graph betting "1$".

It's clear that this isn't a long running method. Without increasing your bet you will continue to dip the chart. Let's compare the last chart of 30 bets with a few more 30 bet charts at different payouts.

1.22x

4x

8x

24x

 

Now I ran these strategies at least 10 times each and settled on what gave the most consistent results. Each chart produced a similar curve more than two thirds of the time - concluding that this is a result one can expect on average. There will be times that these are completely off.

There are factors that stand out from each.

1.22x - It hit most of the time. Had I bet 5$ on the first bet - I would be over my 1$ profit target.

4x - It took a while to hit but had my bet been just 20c I would have risked less with similar odds of hitting the 1$ profit target.

8x - It hit on the first go for that chart. Other charts where it took a while to hit still recovered and hit the stated target without needing to bet as much.

24x - This is the most notable one... and that's why I put the cursor on the profit decline. Betting against the odds in smaller amounts is the way to go. I let it run for 30 bets but just for the sake of consistency.

What does all this tell us really?

It tells us a lot. I'll run one more experiment comparing losses and wins at low vs high risk.

Let's try 1.35x

My first go at 1.35x took annoyingly long to fail which illustrates that a lucky seed can certainly be a blessing. But re-running it showed different results on average.

                                       

The first pic shows what you can expect from the method in the short term. The other two demonstrate how dangerously it dips if you don't get lucky in the beginning.

Let's look at a high risk strategy playing for the same payout. 1.35x 1$ is 35c. So let's find a strategy that has a 35c payout. For reference - let's say the following chart was 1$ a bet on 2x.

So let's bet at 10c and aim for 4.5x. That would give us the same 35c profit per hit but risk only a tenth of the amount. I've hung back on a decimal for the following charts.

That's the result on a lucky streak/good side of the seed.

On this one it started out unlucky and then took advantage of a lucky streak. Winning is about knowing when enough is enough.

Yet again this one started off unlucky - but bounced back.

Let's raise the multiplier and lower the bet further. This time we're betting 0.045 at a payout of 9. That's a 36c profit per win... Slightly higher.

Once again the chart bounced.

Now I'm making a proposition here. Several. The first is that high payout and low bet is a safer strategy than low payout high bet. But that only holds true if you play the odds. If you have 100$ and want to make 10$ - setting your payout to 1.1x and max betting has a very good chance - 90% - of finishing the task. Get unlucky however and land in the other 10 percent - and you've sunk your entire bankroll hoping to make only a tenth of it.

If you have that same 100$ and want to make just 10$ using a high risk method try this instead. Bet 3.5$ at a payout of 20. Should your bet hit - that's well above your goal and you risked far less.

Let's look at a 20x chart with a 3.5$ bet.

This is a better strategy for multiple reasons. It doesn't put all your eggs in one basket and it has a chance to skyrocket your balance early on. The flipside of that coin is the potential for a streak of losses bad enough to sink your balance. However... You can stop and adjust or even cut losses at any time.

 

Back to my prepositions. This is the boldest one:

When factoring in the human intuition to stop - modify and restart a strategy- the lower your multiplier the worse. That however does not in the medium term equal "the higher your multiplier the better".

A branching off of this proposition is that the if the above is true there must be a sweet spot. I have found that sweet spot to exist in several places - and for the purpose of this article I'll try yet another that plays the odds.

You have 100$. You want to make 10$. Let's go. 0.001000000 TRTL is your 100$. 0.001100000 TRTL is your 110$ and your goal.

 

Now I'm putting my proposition to the test here by running one single round of a method I haven't calculated yet. It will be an entirely new attempt.

Balance ready.

1.21$ or 0.00001210 TRTL is your base bet. 9.9x is your multiplier. If it hits on the first go you have profited slightly above your goal.

Whoops that failed on the first try. Let's reload.

There we go.

Now instead of me making a method up on the spot let's look at 2 methods I've already examined.

The first is the "safer bet" and the second is the riskier one. However - the higher risk of the second method allows one to profit more on each reset.

The method I'm talking about as the safer method is 30x increase by 4% on loss. Since my first test aligned with the above parameters perfectly on the higher risk 35x increase by 5% on loss - pictured below - I won't do a retest of that method. Rather read up on it here.

I'll admit... I worried about that dip...

But there's the catch.

And there's our 10.87$ profit.

This method can and does fail. At least that's what I've been told. I can't imagine it actually failing if one hangs back on the final decimal keeps it there with a large bankroll. That having been said - even with a small bankroll it just put a bullseye through the target.

 

 

 

Try out these other casinos too - they all have their own perks and give away coins even for non-deposit players.

 

how_to_win is a crypto gambling blog that features exclusive interviews - creative strategies - and much more. All tests and interviews are original content.

To read up on previous pieces visit the following links:

https://www.publish0x.com/how-to-win

https://www.publish0x.com/how-to-win/how-to-gamble-for-a-living-the-potentially-infinite-multipli-xzwxxzm

https://www.publish0x.com/how-to-win/how-to-gamble-for-a-living-one-pros-method-xxwxrkx

https://www.publish0x.com/how-to-win/how-to-gamble-for-a-living-the-keno-board-xlykvry

https://www.publish0x.com/how-to-win/how-to-gamble-for-a-living-part-1-xvwxwne

 

Gamble for fun. Do not gamble more than you can afford to lose.

If you or a loved one has a problem with gambling visit https://www.begambleaware.org/

 

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