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This is an important question, as it shows market share and whether the crypto potential has stagnated. To do this, we will take some data and do some back of the napkin calculations.
First, we'll have to count out from the global population those who live in China. It is illegal to own or trade crypto there. This brings us at around 6.5 billion people. About a quarter of them are under the age of 15, which means they cannot buy any crypto, which brings us down to about 4.9 billion people. Another 10% is over the age of 65 (or 650 million people) - those are people who would not buy any crypto - and we are down to 4.25 billion people. Subtract another 10% for people living under the poverty line, and cannot afford to get the technology to buy any crypto (and this is quite understated), and we end up to roughly 3.6 billion people.
3.5 billion people is the market potential.
Coinbase claims to have about 100 million users. BINANCE has another 90 million users - but this sounds to be somewhat understated, as it has 10 times the market activity that COINBASE has while their social media followers are roughly double of those of Coinbase (they most probably have around 200 million users). On the decentralized world, Uniswap must have another 100 million users, since their volume is quite similar to Coinbase. KUCOIN has 18 million users. Kraken and Gate.io have 10 million users each.
Of course these users are not unique. Quite some users have accounts or traded with more than one exchange. It is though safe to assume that 80% of the users are unique, at least for larger exchanges. This makes us around 360 million users for the three largest exchanges and some 120 million users for all the others, excluding derivatives. That's 480 million people, or roughly 13.75% of the total market potential.
Back in 2018, the average monthly volume for all Bitcoin markets was at around $150B. In 2020, it had gone to $600B, and during the first lockdown, it skyrocketed to $1.5T. This is true for each and every month since January of 2021. On February 26th of that year, $350B were traded at a price around $46.25K - that's around 7.5 million Bitcoins, or about half of the free float. This means one thing: the vast majority of people who have ever bought any crypto, have either lost (sold at loss) or losing serious money. Only those who have bought prior to mid-December 2020 (and haven't cashed-out since then) are not. Maybe a few thousand, out of those 480 million. That's at best 1 for every 1,000.
Good luck finding one!
This is going to be a long crypto-winter. And crypto-maniacs will be having a rough time seeing Bitcoin at $40, 50, or 60K again, without putting their hands deep in their pockets. Other People's Money are not there any more.
