I'm sorry it took so long ago, but... well the problem I had with the previous report kinda seems to worsen, including some things in my personal life that seemingly got better to kinda revert back to worse. And frankly, it took me a few attempts to get to write it, and It was not really all at once. To the point it could almost be merged with the next... but I decided to do them separately anyway. Especially since I recently got rather disconnected from the market... so I hope I will get to catch up more before the next, and thus give You a better overview of the market situation with that(but I did already catch word of a few new concerns with one of the new cryptocurrencies I add, so I had to take a look on that matters before finishing this reports, and also get other interruptions). And I actually have one additional section for this report - about important part of DCA experiment I didn't cover before. Also I decided to change the order of "Current Portfolio State" and "New Purchases" paragraphs. Anyway, without further ado, let's go on with the report.
And if You don't know what I mean and what this Great DCA experiment is You can check out the introductory post. If You don't know what these catch-up purchases check out the "Catch-up purchases" section of this post. If You are confused about the new format of the reports see this post. (Also remember it's not financial advice - You are the only one responsible for Your own finances and any risk You take!).
My view on the current market state - and how it affects my moves
As I said, I got pretty disconnected from the market. I notice of course the previous price drops and recent pump, but I did not get enough into the reasons for it so I can't say I fully understand it. It wasn't as low as 2 reports ago (~16k) but it only returned to levels similar to a previous report (20-25k, so even a bit higher) and before finishing writing this report (which I didn't manage to finish before my trip to London, and then I got sick, and yet for some time after I wasn't able to get to work on it again until now) there was a big pump on Bitcoin go even as far as above 35k$, though now it decreased a bit - 34k$ and it seems stabilized at that levels(34-35k$) for now.
But will it go down? And if so, then how much further down will it go? I don't know. Before the price increase, I've seen even such bold claims like "Bitcoin is going down to 2k"... but I don't think these had any other purpose than to cause fear. It would require something really big, and even when the pandemic began and everything was put into lockdown bitcoin dropped only to about ~3k, and it was no more than 5-6 times drop. Now drop to 2k would be 17 times drop. So I don't know how huge thing it would have to be to cause such a big drop. I don't think even another pandemic would really do that(and there are some rumors new one will be announced, by the end of this year... but are they credible at all? Only time will tell...). I mean this time it would be less of a shock, as it already happened once in recent times. But still, I believe we may go down below 20k, maybe even around 10k... but without a really gigantic black swan I don't think a bigger drop is possible now. Well, actually the technical analysts I follow even say that there rather won't be any new low now. And now with crypto seemingly bouncing up significantly, will it still drop before the bull market? Actually, I hope so. Especially since the same analysts I follow claim that without a big drop now we probably won't reach 100k$ - from a technical point of view, that is. But even no new low doesn't mean no drop, as at around 24k$ there would be a lot of liquidations, so it's likely we may hit that level before bull run - also according to them. So in the end I definitely hope for some more discounts, before we start the rally for the next ATH.
And knowing that it may be not so much time left I recently decided to add a slight modification to my purchases... initially, I meant to make it immediately, but with my a bit more sick state, I didn't really do it, and now I think that I will take a risk and wait with it until the price will start to go lower.
And the modification is: I will try to put offer at the beginning of the weekend, and if after it, that offer isn't realized I will make them closer to the current market price. To avoid having offers hanging on my exchange account for weeks... especially as these may be the last opportunities to buy cheap before the bull market begins. I still think we haven't entered it yet... The bitcoin cycle suggests that we are now (still) in the last months of accumulation before the bull run.
This also leads me to another important part... the point of DCA strategy is to buy over a long time for a long term... but the point isn't to buy at ATH too of course. The important part is also when to stop buying and when to start to sell...
The DCA stop condition
So it's time to establish the "stop condition" of my purchases. Well, frankly I'm NOT going to sell all bought BTC and ETH - at most about 50%. As for altcoins... well I think I will still keep at least about 10% of each, but how much I will actually sell would depend on their situation. It won't be all at once of course. It will also be in batches, although most likely bigger than purchase batches.
But when will I stop buying? Well, frankly I think that with the altcoins I will just follow my action with BTC and ETH, and for them... well I will base it on CURRENT ATH. And current ATH is ~68700$ for BTC and ~4800$ for ETH.
So I think I will stop buying them at half of previous ATH so the levels that I consider "stop condition" are:
- 36000$ for
- 2500$ for
- For alts, I will stop buying when both ETH and BTC will reach their stop conditions.
As for selling, I think that I will start from:
- 75k$ or 2.5x the average purchase price for Bitcoin (whichever is higher)
- 8k or 4x of the average purchase price for (whichever is higher)
- 5-10x of the average purchase price for (other) - depending on their previous ATH, my most expensive purchase and how much potential I see in them (maybe in the next reports I will give some more details for them)
I will also yet to see how I would divide them into selling batches. Though it may not be exactly on a weekly basis (it may be once per two weeks or even more frequently than one week), I have yet to think it over.
Also if after reaching my "stop condition level" I will again purchase them when they go lower - at least before reaching the selling point.
New Coins - Arweave(AR) and Gala Games (GALA)
The first of the new coins is ), which is a bit similar to Filecoin, as it is also a data storage kind of project. It aims to be a decentralized alternative to cloud data storage, being a reliable, immutable archive with build-in automated data replication(which is one of the things it does better than Filecoin - which still will be in my portfolio, but as a less important coin than AR) - to avoid lose of any data. Also part of why Arveave was founded in the first place is - as its creators put it - "fighting against the kind of terrifying totalitarianism as described in Orwells 1984", and the project actually launched on the anniversary of publishing the mentioned book. And frankly seeing how much some influential groups trying to rewrite history (and how much things already are deceitfully changed in public eye) and make it `more appealing to "nowadays sensitivity"` and all that... the scenario from mentioned book (though not in detail, I write about the general idea) doesn't seem so unlikely to me. And permanent preservation of the past is an important part of preventing such a scenario.
But returning to the coin itself its business model (and also its main use case) here is that You pay for a certain amount of data storage and You'll have it forever(well as long as Arweace blockchain exists, but it's without any subscription, which is another great thing about it - it doesn't use this omnipresent subscription model). It uses its own consensus called proof of access, and have a special incentive mechanism for users that store the data for a long time(it is a peer to peer system). So there's no traditional mining, and thus no additional energy use. It also has quite a lot partnerships with businesses, institutions etc. (like Instagram, Internet Archive, Longview Labs, Digital History Association). You can also learn a bit more about it on Coin Bureau YouTube channel (I think it's generally a great source of information, and the style of presenting it is quite entertaining)
Overall I think it's a very great project, great and important, so I'd say it has very bright future and will - hopefully - help to shape it for the better. I think it's definitely a gem worth having.
The second one is Gala Games) - project from a totally different niche, as it is gaming ecosystem(but it's definitely something other than Enjin, in fact, it is more compared to projects like Axie Infinity or Decentraland, even though it seems to be something bigger, at the very least than first of them), with its own blockchain games (though I didn't try any and when I last checked there was nothing particularly interesting to me - but my tastes don't necessarily coincide with what's most popular, and I usually don't get interested in new titles easily). There is also a play-to-earn element in that system, which is part of their plan to win over their centralized competition in gaming industry in general. They plan to launch their own blockchain - Gala Chain - but as far as I know they didn't do it yet, and they operate on Ethereum network, but the token is also available on Polygon (and they at least plan partnership with this project) and BINANCE smartchain. This project is constantly developing and it seems to not be afraid to make even quite big changes. And at least to my knowledge, it has quite an experienced team working on it - even though recently there was some conflict among founders.
As for tokenomics it is currently used to paid for NFTs in games inside Gala ecosystem but in the future will likely be also used to pay for transaction fees on GALA blockchain. It also has a halving every July, and also 50% of newly minted GALA tokens are distributed as reward for nodes, rest goes for treasury which is supposed to help with developing Gala ecosystem including new games on it. However the circulating supply is unclear (or at least was some time ago) - generally, there are some issues with transparency, I must admit. Still it seems to be the best project in its niche and I would like my portfolio to have some investment for most of them (Or at least most of the most promising, and I count gaming in that group).
Now their tokens are very cheap, and they were much higher in the past, but despite some problems, I believe that Gala may be one of the most promising projects in its niche and is overall quite a promising project for the long term with very big growth potential and possibly a gem. But in the ends they presumably aim mostly not for profits, and their focus is not investment and such but... making better future for gaming,` create quality games. Something I would definitely like to support - and I do hope it is actually true, even though last not so positive information from inside the team.
New Purchases
Current Portfolio State
Portfolio state as of 6 XI 2023, ~21:00 of Polish local time (which is Central European Time CET/UTC+01:00) (Also sorry for the low quality... I couldn't remember the previous method I used to have a specific part of the spreadsheet imported)
*Terra Luna is here for historical reasons, as it was one of the coins I did choose, though its next purchases were discontinued already and it doesn't count towards a portfolio cap of 25 altcoins other than ETH.
For more info about the table check out the current portfolio paragraph of this report
So, now there are quite a few interesting things. Bitcoin is now the biggest part of the portfolio (42,6%), alts are the smallest(24,13%), and Ethereum share barely changed... but the coins which have the biggest returns is not Bitcoin, but... well actually 3 altcoins: Stacks(STX), the Graph(GRT) and Chainlink(LINK) (from biggest to smallest returns, but all ~64-68%, compared to bitcoins ~49%). But only one of them is the altcoin with the biggest share of the portfolio - it is Stacks with 3,69% of the portfolio... which is below half of the share it previously had, making it a coin with the biggest negative change in portfolio share from the previous report. One of the current share leaders is the opposite: Link has biggest positive change: 0,85pp. (Of course counting just altcoins, as in general these are altcoins and BTC respectively.) There are also 3 others with big portfolio share - ~2,3% - MATIC, BNB and Solana. But relative to number of the purchases it's actually (excluding the AR it's value in the table is a mistake it's actually 0,35% - I will fix that with updating the table to higher image quality).
But in general for now just 7 coins (STX, BNB, SOL, GRT, LINK, KNC, AR) out of 22 have positive returns. Though considering we still are in the accumulation phase of the cycle it's not such a bad result, especially that the entire portfolio (up to this report's purchases) is on ~42% profits. Worse thing is that 3 coins (ICP, ADA and DAR) are on over 80% losses, one of them (DAR) is even on 96% - that's really massive loss, meaning it has to go 2500% up to not be on lose... does it mean I will ditch that coin? I don't know, maybe. Or maybe I would just make one last purchase before, to average that price and perhaps... get on a positive balance with it eventually. But it would need some further research...
Final words
I know this report was kinda late, and the next report practically is on the way... but I kinda want to focus more on fandom-related matters (including the introductory post there, a long time ago - though there are a few other things I would like to finish first(some related to future posts), so rather don't except this post before weekend) and I come to conclusion that making this report double one would go in the way with that more than doing it separately.
Also recently I finally started therapy (pharmacological - as my past experience shows it's more helpful in my case... especially considering how hard it is to find the right psychotherapist) so I think things will now start to get better - at least in the matter of my psychic health - and hopefully I will return to publishing posts more frequently. Especially since I don't come back to university just yet - I hope this another year will let me psychically recover and finally finish my studies, to at least finally become an engineer. Though this time - partially from reasons beyond my control (including the mentioned prolonged illness) - I screw up and didn't send an application to prolong my dean's leave... though I'm not sure if more than a year is even possible (for what I find it's not... so that would mean I couldn't get it anyway so my "screw up" doesn't even matter...)
And last thing, about the portfolio table - do You think it's more convenient to read with black lines or should I go back to no vertical lines? Let me know in the comments!
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