What's good, traders? Y’all, know I have to keep it real, even when that means poking a little fun at my previous lack of clear vision. Not going to be one of those charlatans selling you sunshine and lollipops just for the sake of delusion.
Case in point - my bullish conviction on us muscling through 70K resistance and then some in the lead-up to this pre-halving run? Yeah, that prediction aged like milk left out in a sauna. We came up waaaay short on testing that level, instead getting turned back rather violently by the bears in the high 60Ks.
Can't be mad though, price is price. No amount of hopium fixes that sort of miscalculation. All we can do is adapt and recalibrate our lenses to the emerging probabilities. Which is exactly what we've been stuck doing amid this tedious sideways grind.
And let's call it like we see it - the PA of late has been fairly uninspiring. A whole lot of aimless staggering back and forth within the confines of a relatively tight range. Not exactly the thrilling volatility extravaganza Degen’s were banking on with halving mania theoretically taking hold.
That said, we did at least make an honest effort to drill down and test the much-respected 65K support zone as part of this consolidation period. While breathing rare air up at those lofty heights, this type of retracement back toward areas of previous resistance-turned-support is par for the course. Especially ahead of such a momentous macro event.
So in that sense, yeah - this sideways chop and probing of key levels could very well be constructive reloading before another impulsive wave higher. Perfectly normal price action, all things considered. We needed that cool-off anyway after overheating into the upper 60K retracement heights. Helped reset some overzealous derivatives exposure and mint fresh buy-side liquidity too.
The one curve-ball is just how freakishly tame this pre-halving period has been from a volatility standpoint. If we go off past cycles as a rough framework, we'd typically see some accelerated price ramps and speculative hedging flow in the immediate lead-up to the event. At least for now, that script hasn't exactly played out as expected.
However, that's precisely why I continue urging all of you diamond-hand degenerates to stay flexibly adaptive. As we get closer and closer to halving territory, historical data points get inherently less useful for extrapolating probability cones. This far out from theoretical BTC supply shock, untested variables start gumming up the works of any narrative.
The next few weeks very well could see an explosion of alt-narrative price action completely disconnected from what the market tutor of yore would suggest. All it takes is one unexpected spark of narrative fusion and folks frantically reprogramming their models in real time. We're sailing into unknown waters - be prepared to stay on your toes.
Not that it'll matter much for my core trading brethren who were weaned into this chaos from day one. The disciplined battle-hardened lot forged in the crucible of these wild markets. Price zones, significant levels, areas of liquidity, and potential volatility focus - we trade-off that alone, not preconceived storylines.
