Hello all, I have prepared a weekly analysis of ETH/USDT for you.
The price at the time of writing (17-03-21 at 11:00) is around $1760.00. This corresponds to one of the scenarios I had indicated as a possibility on the daily chart last week.
Weekly chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/46BrfnPG/
The price is still in the channel we talked about two weeks ago. The price has had a rejection near the top and is following BTC's downmove. As long as it stays in its channel, there is no reason to look further down or up than the channel.
Furthermore, it can be seen that the price is above all the ema's and they are nicely above each other. After and small dip on the short emas they are now running again. The RSI has had a bounce at the 65 but and is below the 12ema. We are still in bullish control territory, but the 12 ema is now resistance on the RSI. Just like two weeks back, there is no signal on the weekly chart yet that we are entering a bear market. The 1st point of attention is still the channel that has formed between the weekly $1380 S/R level and the ATH. A break in either direction will signal a clear trend.
Daily chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1LZ4iDL0/
On the daily chart the price has broken the 4-hour order block, which also corresponds to the center line of the channel (this is not yet confirmed, as there are no two touches on either side, but is what I am monitoring). This is because it is the swing high and swing low after a strong up move.
Currently the price is experiencing support from the 4 hour order block. The RSI has had a nice break from the 50 line and the 12ema, although it has currently broken through the 12ema again. So currently ETH has support from the order block, the RSI 50 and the 55 ema is also running to the order block for additional confluence of support.
4H chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/iowdqjEj/
This chart shows that ETH has broken the order block, but after the subsequent upmove is now in serious trouble. A bear divergent can be seen on the RSI which has played out with a move down where the Ema 8 and 21 have crossed and may be heading towards a crossing of the 55ema. The RSI is moving towards the bear zone and is below the 12ema which has been reprojected several times
The price has made an equal low and is now in a small area to fight the price.
(Order block) is currently making a HH, HL and HH which could be a trend reversal on the low timeframe. On a side note, price is now in the golden pocket of the last down wave. This in combination with the resistances which are now above the price, does not yet look positive for the continuation of the uptrend. I don't see a confirmation of an uptrend continuation until the 4H order block is broken and finds support thereon.
Outlook:
All in all, I am bullish on the longer term given the nice price action and the positive signals on the higher time frames. For this, the price has to stay above the 4H order block and find support there. In the short term, I am a little less positive and think that there will be another decline until at least the 4H order block. I don't expect us to drop through this as BTC doesn't make a strong move down. If this does happen we will go to the bottom of the channel around $1380.- With a neat reversal / bounce on the 4H order block I expect us to go back to the top of the channel around $2000.-
If I have to think of a trade setup, for a Long position I would first want the price to find support on the 4H order block. A buy on the retest would be a nice entry.
For a short position I would wait for a clear rejection of this S/R point at the $1380 or $1250. This is not in the works for now so there would be a 2nd option to trade the break with a rejection thereafter from the 4H order block down to the $1380 region.
