(December 5th, 2020, 7:00PM EST)
Ethereum had a very bullish month of November, nearly doubling in price as Ethereum went from below $400 to north of $600, forming a very bullish candle on the monthly chart. This forms a markedly higher high on Ethereum's long-term chart as it continues an ascent from the pits of 2018-2019, continuing a sustained ascending channel that spans nearly 12 months now.
If you compare this year's pattern to previous years, it looks very similar to 2016-2017. Now, that's now to say I'm projecting another January 2018 repeat in the next few months. However, I do believe that this bullish ascending channel on the monthly chart indicates ETH is building up for an impulsive bullish breakout to the upside, probably somewhere in the medium-term timeframe (3-6 months). It could come sooner, of course, but I'm in the business of predicting the future or making precise calls to the day - I look for probabilities and calculated guesses.
When this breakout comes, I think ETH could see an impulsive rally above the $1,000 level, somewhere in the range of the January 2018 ATH around $1,400 and $2,000 before making any sort of meaningful pullback. As you can see in the chart below, the $1,425 level would be a 100% retracement back to the 2018 ATH. Above, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension sits around $1,800 and the 161.8% fib extension around $2,200. I think somewhere between these two price levels, one a large round number and a new ATH, the other just above an ever larger and rounder psychological number, would be a realistic price target for a breakout on the monthly chart. Aside from $1,400 being the previous ATH, I don't believe there's any other significance to this particular price level, vs $20,000 for Bitcoin which is a large whole and even psychological figure.
Longer-term (6+ months), ETH is almost certainly going substantially higher, especially in a rapidly burgeoning industry that is gaining institutional and mainstream attention and adoption by the day. I think the days of Sub-$1,000 ETH are limited and diminishing, and if we were to plot ETH on a historical BTC chart, ETH is (through a technical analysis lens) around late 2016-early 2017. Again, I'm not predicting ETH will follow in BTC's exact tracks, as there are vast differences between the two digital currencies and the crypto space then and now. It's simply my belief that this time is not all that "different."
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