Ethereum didn't do much on Monday, initially rallying before giving back most of the gains to form somewhat of an inverted hammer, closing at $382. The past week has been nothing but a bearish microtrend, with Ethereum grinding lower toward the 50 Day EMA.
(November 3, 2020 8:00 PM EST)
Outlook: Ethereum posted a quiet start to the week, seeing an initial spike up to the $400 level before turning around and closing a hair above yesterday's close. An inverted hammer is somewhat bearish and shows rallies are being faded, however, ETH is now close to grazing the 50 Day EMA below at $370 which should act as support. ETH has been more choppy than Bitcoin as it suffers from second-mover disadvantage and tends to sputter while waiting for Bitcoin dominance to compress and squeeze into ETH.
We are also at a significant seasonal time in markets where liquidity is low in legacy markets and there are a variety of potentially bearish catalysts that can send markets into a nosedive, which would probably drag Ethereum down with them. ETH has cooled off a bit lately, and my confidence would be greatly restored if it could hold and bounce off the 50 Day EMA and continue this uptrend. ETH has been moving in very steady and incremental two-steps-forward, one-step-back micro-market cycles, which is healthy, but not sexy or explosive. Given all of the potentially negative catalysts waiting to ignite, ETH could fall sharply and greater in proportion to Bitcoin, but should be considered buyable dips, as ETH 2.0's initial launch is months if not weeks away, and should erase any temporary fear-stricken selling that could plague the markets over the next few weeks.
Support: Look for support at the 50 Day EMA around $368 and then $350. As mentioned previously, I need to see an impulsive wave higher above $400 again to be able to call it support. That didn't happen, so ETH pulled back, and now I'm looking for a bounce off support to reattempt $400. Longer-term support should be found around $300 which is only a few bucks higher than the 200 Day EMA, which is nearby.
Resistance: $400 is my near-term resistance until ETH breaks decisively above it. Once ETH breaks through $400, we'll then look for confirmation of support and then look higher to $450 and $500. Given the volatility in markets and bearish tone, ETH may see further weakness as collateral damage.
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