As of January 26, 2024, recent online reports indicate that US Bitcoin ETFs collectively manage assets totaling $29.5 billion. The leading Bitcoin ETF remains the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), boasting an Assets Under Management (AUM) of $23.5 billion and an expense ratio of 1.50%. Following closely is the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as the second-largest Bitcoin ETF, with an AUM of $2.1 billion and an expense ratio of 0.12%. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) secures the third position with an AUM of $1.6 billion and an expense ratio of 0.75%.
Grayscale remains the world's biggest holder of Bitcoins.
Grayscale Trust stands as a prominent crypto asset manager, strategically investing in diverse sectors of the digital economy, including currencies, smart contracts, financials, and beyond. Initially introduced as The Bitcoin Investment Trust on September 25, 2013, it commenced as a private placement exclusively available to accredited investors. Subsequently, it obtained FINRA approval, allowing eligible shares to be publicly traded under the symbol GBTC.
Blackrock and Fidelity aggressively buying.
Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) moved more than 113,000 Bitcoins from its wallet, the overwhelming majority of which was to COINBASE Prime in preparation for sale, to be eagerly scooped up by Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which now holds approximately 50,000 BTC. The swift accumulation not only underscores robust investor interest but also signifies a pivotal moment in the assimilation of digital assets into the mainstream financial landscape.
Fidelity Investments' Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) is on the brink of surpassing the $2 billion mark, boasting holdings of nearly 44,000 BTC at the current moment. The ETF's performance has closely mirrored that of IBIT since its inception.
What can we anticipate for the remainder of 2024 and beyond, looking ahead to the year 2030?
First of all: we will see a wave of consolidation within the new Bitcoin ETF market in the United States.
Cathie Wood, whose ARK exited Grayscale GBTC entirely as the spot ETF anticipation rose, has her own spot Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) and strategically incorporated the Ark 21Shares Spot Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) into the company's Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW). She bravely envisions a "bull case" scenario where Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially reach $1.5 million by 2030. Wood shared these thoughts in a CNBC interview on January 11, coinciding with the inaugural trading day for spot Bitcoin ETFs following the SEC's approval on January 10.
Big Reset: Bitcoin is the next 10 trillion dollar market, similar to the gold market.
The notion of advocating for a mature Bitcoin market, inclusive of access for major institutions, resembling the gold market has spurred me to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the gold market. If Bitcoin becomes essential for the United States to keep its global currency status, we can compare it to gold.
What was gold's role?
In the Bretton Woods negotiations preceding the conclusion of World War II, the United States asserted that global reconstruction could only occur by utilizing the U.S. dollar as the primary medium of exchange. Given its dominant economic position, the U.S. accounted for over 50% of the world's GDP and possessed 80% of the world's monetary gold reserves. The dollar was pegged to gold at a rate of $35 per ounce (31 grams), with France, in particular, insisting on the gold backing to instill confidence and ensure that the United States did not resort to excessive money printing.
What can Bitcoin's role be?
Bitcoin can be applied as the anchor during this big reset since its scarcity is hardcoded in the Bitcoin Protocol and can not be changed. Upon reading the Bitcoin whitepaper, I envisioned Bitcoin's potential to eventually replace the US Dollar. While the US Dollar will endure, its status as the global reserve currency, which it currently holds, may not be everlasting. Originally backed by gold, the US Dollar served its role for an impressive 80 years. Nonetheless, there is a recognition that this status quo may evolve.
Bitcoin's price in 2030.
- Finder.com conducted a 2023 poll involving 50 fintech specialists, revealing an average prediction from the panel that BTC would be valued at $249,578 by 2025 and $5,237,082 by 2030. Notably, some panelists, including Daniel Polotsky, the founder of CoinFlip, and Fred Schebesta, the founder of Finder.com, foresee Bitcoin's evolution into a global reserve currency and digital gold, potentially surpassing gold as the premier safe-haven asset.
- Coinpedia, a cryptocurrency news and analysis platform, envisions Bitcoin reaching an all-time high in 2030, with a projected range between $277,751 and $347,783 and an average price of $312,767. The site anticipates Bitcoin more than doubling by 2040, potentially averaging $353,429.23, and surging to $646,234.22 by 2050.
- Techopedia, an educational technology website, foresees a more stable Bitcoin price in 2030, ranging between $95,000 and $120,000, with an average price of $110,000. The site acknowledges potential challenges for Bitcoin, such as regulatory uncertainties, environmental concerns, security risks, scalability issues, and competition from other cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum, which offers greater functionality and innovation.
- In November 2023, Cathie Wood made an appearance on CNBC's "Squawk Box" where she articulated her anticipation of the cryptocurrency market surging to $25 trillion by 2030. She expressed the belief that Bitcoin and Ethereum would play dominant roles in the crypto asset ecosystem, envisioning Bitcoin's ascent to becoming a global reserve currency and digital gold. She predicts Bitcoin's price to exceed $1 million in 2030.
- I believe that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high during this cycle, ranging from $100,000 to $200,000. By 2030, Bitcoin will bypass $1 million
The miracle of exponential growth.
Exponential growth in disruptive tech refers to the rapid and accelerating innovation in technologies like artificial intelligence, public blockchains, energy storage, robotics, and multi-omic sequencing. These technologies improve exponentially, becoming faster, cheaper, and more powerful over time, creating a feedback loop of innovation fueled by data. Examples include generative AI, electric vehicles, and orbital aerospace, all expected to bring significant economic value and transform industries.
How could exponential growth happen for Bitcoin?
- Bitcoin becomes a global reserve currency and a store of value, replacing gold and other assets. This could happen if more countries, institutions, and individuals adopt Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical risks. The move by Wall Street illustrates this scenario is already happening and will accelerate.
- Bitcoin could gain widespread acceptance as a medium of exchange and payment system, challenging traditional fiat currencies and platforms. This potential hinges on improvements in Bitcoin's scalability, usability, and interoperability, coupled with increased acceptance from merchants, consumers, and regulators as a legitimate and convenient transaction method. Here still lie enormous challenges.
Which ETFs do you think will become the top 3 by 2030?
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