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Bitcoin rallied this week, initially falling before bouncing around the $44K level to $49K Friday night EST. The past 4 weeks have been a fun ride and rally, but as we approach major resistance around $50K, it begs the question: What if this was just a relief rally?
(August 20, 2021 8:30PM EST)
Short-Term
Bitcoin will soon print its fifth consecutive green weekly candle in a row, marking a major turnaround after what looked like a devastatingly bearish chart in mid-July when it looked like $20K was inevitable. But it's precisely when things look the absolute worst when markets like to catch most people off guard and do the opposite of what participants think.
But while many have resumed their exuberant bullish sentiment, Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet and it would be irresponsible to ignore the fact that Bitcoin very well could get rejected around the $50K level and retrace to $40K or even the 50 Week EMA around $36K. In doing so, Bitcoin would complete a successful retracement of a new micro-rally and test the 50 Week EMA as support before rallying to higher highs. It is not often in any market that we saw 5 or more consecutive green candles on the weekly chart, so I am cautiously bullish in the short-term, buying dips and staking while saving dry powder for a more substantial pullback. It is that pullback that I think will be the final 'last stop' before the train leaves the station for good ($100K+).
However, we could very well break above $50K and shoot straight up to $58K or even the ATH, cementing a new impulsive uptrend. Time will tell, but I think we'll see sooner than later.
Fundamentally, nothing has changed. I continue to buy on dips and earn passive yield on my crypto, and will continue to do so until the fundamentals change or the TA becomes catastrophic.
BTC Dominance
Long-Term
BTFD. Fundamentals have not changed. By nearly every measure, we have not gotten anywhere near a market cycle top; in fact, we are maybe halfway through this bull market. What do you do during bull markets? Buy. The. Dip.
