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We are all trying to make sense of the market for past 1 week now, as there are no concrete signals coming from the crypto market. So, here is the analysis of BTC and ETH after my analysis of 29th June 2021. Let’s see where the market has moved since then. Since BTC is moving in such a small channel, it doesn’t make any sense for me to do a daily analysis of it as there will be no quality added for anyone, unless there’s some FUD or huge positive news and BTC (thus the market) shows bigger move.
BTC
- The price action of BTC has restricted to a much smaller channel than before.
- Previously price was moving within $ 40,500 (acting as resistance) and $ 31,500 (providing support). Now, since 21 June onwards the channel has reduced to $35,800 acting as resistant and $ 31500 still providing support. The price movement on the daily chart is for just $ 5000 and therefore provides no opportunity to take a position.
- Trend wise, the 7 days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is below the 25 days EMA, which itself is below the 99 days EMA, further signifying the bearish sentiments market.
- Since 20 June, MACD line (white) is hugging the signal line (green), and it seems more likely to cross over to continue with the bearish sentiments.
- RSI has reduced from 46 on 29 June to 43. Still no sign of RSI divergence, thus no trend reversal is expected soon.
- Volumes, for the past 2 weeks now, have been pretty low and the volume trend has been downwards and much lower for more than a week now.
- Fear & greed index too has almost similar numbers for past 3 days now, and the market continue to be in fear of what will happen next and most importantly when.
Interpretation
- For the time being there is no entry point which will be suitable for the investors because of the very small price channel and the high price of BTC. BTC’s higher price level also makes it difficult for most of the individual investors to use 15 minutes or smaller time frame charts for quick scalping in day trading.
- Therefore, for now, investors should just wait and watch for the price to make a breakout, or long term investors can use the resistance level to accumulate BTC.
ETH
- Price action which created a descending triangle pattern with the lower trendline acting as a support saw a breach on 01 July and continued to remain out of the triangle for the next few sessions.
- However, the trend reversed on 08 July and the price is again moving towards the triangle. With BTC down trending and bearish sentiments continuing the breach of descending triangle seems more like a fake breakout or at least weak.
- MACD is barely over the signal line and may seem like giving a buying signal, but low RSI levels and low volumes tell us otherwise.
Interpretation
- It will be wise of the investors to wait out the current scenario and not to take any positions.
- For long term investors the current price level is not very attractive. Still they can buy some now and continue to DCA their price. The ETH has a long term support at $1550 levels.
- However, quick scalping can be done in the leveraged market (Futures) and small profits can be made in 3 minute chart. Long positions can be taken close to lower trendline when RSI and MACD provide buy signal together along with buying candle patterns such as ‘morning star’. Alternate positions (short) can be taken close to upper trendline using RSI and MACD together with selling candle pattern such as ‘evening star’.
Note: As I am not a certified financial advisor, along with my analysis please carry out your own research as well before taking any investment decisions.
Link for previous analysis -
Source:
Charts: https://www.binance.com/en/
Fear & Greed Index: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
