I think as we near the end of our 4 year period more and more people are warming to extending cycle theory... Which makes complete sense. We only had one cycle, the last cycle that was a 4 year cycle ( from bottom to top )
But lets analyse a few factors that might support extending cycle theory anyway. Firstly being, where is the money for this big push too 100k+ even coming from?!?!?
The recent surge in price that took us to 69k likely did come from some juicy institutional investors and this has brought us, IMO into the excitement phase, which puts us about a year out from the top?
But let's try ask honestly. Why are institutional investors getting into crypto. And with this recent dip we are experiencing and the economic state of the world, I think we can safely conclude institutional investors were hedging. Not fully investing into the technology. Likely already have pulled out some decent profits to close the year hence our December dip.
But what can we also take from this conclusion? That institutional investors are considering cryptocurrency's a good hedge. Confidence is growing! I remember when I invested into cryptocurrency, and I think it's the same for a lot of people. You kind of catch an up wave (for me it was 2017) and then you do your research after. While institutions are more financially savvy and probably pulled there money out near the top (unlike me in 2017) it is likely this 'hedge investment' That is going to bring forth proper research and interest into the cryptocurrency sector from various institutions.
I think this conclusion seems sensible and fits nicely with extending cycle theory. Let's consider that hedging into cryptocurrency has peaked the interest of institutional investors around the world into the world of crypto. We need to allow them the next year of proper research to truly get what it's about. Remember this is a pretty deep wormhole to truly grasp all the different sides of crypto and what it can do for the world or for businesses.
This means we have time, especially for people who are new into the sector and got into crypto during the recent surge. It would not surprise me one bit that the start of next year is CHOPPY at best. Institutional investors will be looking to get in but not at any high price and it is this investment that will drive the market. There is nothing in the currency price action that states they should be in a hurry in January to invest.
And honestly. AS much as I would love for a market cycle top soon. The technology behind the blockchain is still developing. Especially on the web3 side of things. Eth gas fees are still a joke, metaverse is still just starting to come into a world of its own. P2E gaming is still yet to even really start to come into a world of its own, all of these developments are what will catalyse institutional investments.
The key takeaway here!?
We have TIME, and PATIENCE is needed. I wouldn't.... Honestly, be surprised to see this market cycle take 5 maybe 5 and a half years if the last one took 4? This means at a very conservative estimate we might not see a top untill Q2 2023!? Which gives the above sectors a year and a half to develop too. Which to me seems to all fit quite nicely.
anyway I'm a philosopher not a financial advisor but there's my two cents
