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- You cannot “buy the dips” if you have all your money to invest already invested. LET US STRESS THIS POINT! The point should be obvious, but it bears repeating over and over. It is tempting to go all-in, but that limits your options. Consider always having some funds to the side to buy an unforeseen downturn. Even if you want to “go all-in” on crypto… leave yourself at least a little money to the side just in case. If you are all-in and the price takes a hard downturn, it takes lots of options off the table. It is hard not to go all-in when a coin goes down 60% – 80% over the course of weeks or months, but sometimes they go down even more than that, and it is wise to always prepare for the worst case.
- Learn the Difference Between a Bear Market and Bull Market. General wisdom says “Buy support in a bull, sell resistance in a bear.” Regardless of what type of investor or trader you are… you should learn to spot the difference between a bear and bull market and shift your tactics appropriately. From 2015 – 2017, during a long bull run, you could essentially buy every Bitcoin dip and come out ahead. In 2014 and 2017 buying dips was mostly rewarded with heavy losses. In 2014 and 2018, two bearish years, shorts could short every resistance and profit. In 2015 – 2017, it was rarely safe to short Bitcoin. Knowing the difference between a bull and a bear can be a big deal in any asset, but with the brutal market cycles of crypto, it is especially important to learn the difference.
- Bitcoin (BTC) is King/Queen; Don’t Get Overly Optimistic About Altcoins. Those who invest in BTC tend to get itchy fingers when BTC stagnates and alts go up. Sure, going into IOTA or ZCash can be a brilliant move at times… at other times you’ll be holding the bag while everyone moves back into BTC. Stick with coins you know and like, but consider always being partly in BTC (not 24/7, but in general). This advice applies somewhat to Ethereum as well, but first and foremost BTC is the center of the crypto economy.
- Learn to value coins in BTC. Ether aside, Bitcoin is the current primary currency of the crypto economy (i.e., its what you have to use to buy most altcoins). Those new to crypto tend to value things in dollars. Meanwhile, even seasoned cash traders value coins in dollars. However, enough crypto traders will value coins in BTC for it to matter. If you aren’t aware of the BTC charts, you won’t be able to properly understand the trends everyone else is analyzing and reacting to. You don’t have to make getting more BTC your goal, but you must have the BTC prices of altcoins on your radar. There are times when all coins move up, but altcoins steadily lose value against Bitcoin. Those who know will be the first to dump altcoins for Bitcoin; this will set off a vicious cycle that can result in the stagnation of altcoin prices.
- Altcoins and Bitcoins tend to react to each other. Sometimes they do the opposite of each other and sometimes they do exactly the same thing. It is not rare to see Bitcoin go down while alts go up (and vice versa). This is because almost everyone who has alts has Bitcoin, so they tend to move out of Bitcoin when it goes down and move into alts (and vice versa). Almost just as often as this is the case it isn’t the case. Many times, all coins will go up or down together (generally following Bitcoin’s lead). This dance often results in Bitcoin outperforming altcoins, however every x months we will see an alt boom where alts outpace Bitcoin quickly. If you can time that, great. Try to spot it coming and there is big money to be made. Meanwhile, alts can be tricky to just HODL, as they tend to lose value against fiat and BTC in the offseason. Learn more about the relationship between Bitcoin and Alts. In a word, alts are generally more volatile than Bitcoin.
- Speaking of the last few points, realize that crypto tends to be pattern based and tends to go in cycles. See “the cryptocurrency rotation” and “market cycles” for an in-depth look at what this means. You want to be in a coin before it starts its rotation, and then laddering out as its rotation ends. Likewise, in a perfect world, you want to be in for the bull part of a market cycle, and out for the bear part. Near impossible to spot these trends in advance, but with experience, you should be able to spot them as they occur and manage your positions accordingly.
- Consider Diversifying. With the above advice in mind, there is nothing worse than getting frustrated with BTC, moving to ETH / alts and missing a BTC price spike, then moving back into BTC and missing the ETH spike. This is very easy to do given the rotation, and the natural urge to “FOMO buy.” If you have some of your funds in all the coins you trade, you’ll avoid missing out on a unicorn (a term one can use to describe an odd event, like a giant price spike in a short amount of time). If you diversify, especially when prices are low across the board, you’ll avoid some of the urge to jump into one coin mid or late into a run and out of a coin just before it goes on its run. In other words, although it isn’t the most profitable tactic, diversifying is good for one’s sanity in a number of important ways.
- Learn Technical Analysis. Technical Analysis (TA) is the analysis of price and volume data and trying to predict future trends based on that. If you know how to read a chart, you’ll be better able to understand how things like candles, moving averages, RSI, and the order book can clue you into good spots to buy and sell. Crypto defies logic all the time, but basic indicators are still helpful to understand. TIP: You don’t have to be good at TA, you can just follow others who are. Fibonacci support and resistance levels, moving averages (try 12, 26, 9 MACD on 4hr candles), RSI, and a few other popular indicators are vital to wrap your head around. All the pros use these, and all the big players have bots who run strategies based on these (complex versions of these at least). You can’t afford to ignore TA if you are going to trade crypto and not just invest in it. I suggest you get familiar with tradingview.com ASAP. See a basic TA strategy. TIP: Do your own TA, every trader has an opinion, often their opinions are wrong. Many analysts thrive only in bear markets, or only in bull markets, or only on a certain style of trading. Only you know what is right for you!
- Watch the Order Book. The order book (found on all exchanges) can give you a good sense of what buy/sell orders are “on the books” (sitting on the market waiting to be bought or sold). If you see a lot of sell orders at a certain price and want to sell, you may aim to sell under that price. Likewise, if you are waiting for the price to drop to buy, look at the distribution of other people’s buy orders. Just watch out for artificial buy walls and sell walls (large orders that aren’t meant to fill). You’ll almost always find buy walls and sell walls at support and resistance levels.
- Hold some coins, range trade some coins, keep money on hand for a dip, and set some high-ball and low-ball orders. If you want to ensure you are happy no matter which direction the winds blow, then be set-up to benefit from whatever comes next. If you have some coins you hold, some coins you trade daily or weekly, some money set aside for a dip, and some high-ball and low-ball orders set, then you stand to benefit regardless of what happens. It can be tempting to cash out of crypto or go all in, but both of those can be disappointing if the market goes in the opposite direction you were hoping for. It isn’t always the most profitable move to run a strategy like this, but it can help you to gain experience and have something to be excited about in almost any market. TIP: Note that diversifying your strategy and holdings eats into profits, but offers flexibility. It is a trade-off.
