The day after our previous analysis, BTC has finally behaved as the patterns should according to the book. The supply zone has been broken on the downside and the rising wedge has been played out, resulting in a retrace on the ema55 at 50360 dollars. Although a higher low has been set there, a higher high has not yet been reached. If we see a top forming here, I do not rule out a drop to the 100 level. The supply zone will then be tested in a bearish way, as well as a GP retrace of the last down move and the final target will be in the inefficiency block. Quite a few signals converge there. The rsi has managed to stay above the 50 level but is currently rejected by the ema. Let's start zooming in quickly.
daily chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Dlh2vWFw/
We see here that the lows are getting lower and lower relative to the yellow down trend line. In other words, lower and lower highs are appearing on the chart. Considering the daily chart, I am surprised that the ema's on the four hourly chart are still supporting the price so close to the supply zone. They have been rubbing up against each other for 3 days now but a bearish crossover has not yet taken place. The rsi has also been rising nicely for several days and has just tested the 50 level twice.
4h chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/twfGxKrc/
At first glance this looks pretty nice. We see higer lows but the highs remain the same. So here is a breaker formed that needs to be broken + tested before the price can go further up. The ema55 has already crossed the other two ema's bullish and if you were to draw a trendline on the rsi it has also already crossed bullish. Will these be the first signs of breakout up?
1h chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/S4BKffbj/
Conclusion:
As long as Bitcoin on the 4h chart cannot break above the breaker and test back from the breaker then there is still a reasonable chance for a move further down. There is some support around 50K and 47K but I would rather see it move towards 42K and fill the inefficiency block. If the breaker can be broken on the 4h and higher timeframes then the price can quickly move towards the 67K.
