The price distribution of BTC positions as of 11:00 p.m. today is a 25-hour change in the BTC chain from 10:00 a.m. yesterday. Today was a little bit late because of some unexpected events, and we could have continued with 13 hours of data, but think about it, we've hardly used 24 hours, and look at the whole weekend with the lowest liquidity. Still, starting from the profit chips that have been outstanding for more than half a year and the high-hanging BTC, the overall reduction is less than 970 BTCs, with an average of less than 40 holdings an hour. That is a relatively low level, even over weekends. The overall loss-making chips with a position of more than one month and above USD 25,000 have reduced their holdings by less than 3,500 BTCs, or an average of about 140 per hour, which is also low. So the conclusion that can still be drawn is that, while the price of the BTC has been fluctuating around $19,000, with near-daily potential for it to fall below its recent new low, the longer-term chips that it holds are still showing no sign of changing hands, suggesting that retail investors, who dominate short- and medium-term trading, are running out of money. On the other hand, long-term chips, including one that they have shown little or no interest in policy or macro changes, are likely to remain on hold. In particular, long-term BTC holdings have seen a very rapid rebound since bottoming out on July 23, with the exception of exchanges of cold wallets churning before the ETH merger, adding almost 360,000 in two months that were more than 155 days old, suggesting that the January-March 2022 buying season was now paying off at a cost of around $40,000.
And for ETH, although there is no such detailed long-term holding data as BTC, but still can be seen from the POS of the pledge pool, even the weekend in the pledge of ETH is maintained more than 10,000 a day is increasing, although this number does not appear to be a lot, but you should know that this is in the ETH official has not yet announced the unlocking scheme, that is, the expectation of locking up to one year.
Of course, this is also inextricably linked to the current low ETH price, and some of the holders are still thinking that the ETH will have a good development, so they choose to pledge to obtain the currency's non-destructive return, and compared to the traditional DeFi, the official pledge security will be higher. But with the increasing number of verifiers, the yield on unsold stocks is declining, and it is a matter of luck. A couple of my validations came up. From the current price trend, I've talked with you many times. The focus is still on the high dependence of US monetary policy and the large coincidence of the trend of the index (technology stocks). But this does not mean that the currency market has completely lost the ability of autonomy and can't go independent. But at this stage, the volume of capital in the currency market is still too low. Moreover, the consistency of the main investors in the currency market and technology stocks also causes the high synchronization.
So again, the focus is on overall size. Unfortunately, as of now, USDT, which was the main deal maker, has been quiet again after a slight uptick last week, and it hasn't changed in a few days. For USDC, which is the second main deal maker and more compliant, the market value has dropped below $50 billion, and even Circle has no plans to go public again. Over the last two days, it has dropped $200 million.
Much of the loss of USDC's market value due to regulatory resistance had been transferred to BUSD, but as the market deteriorated and there were fewer USDC leaving for regulatory reasons, the short-term market outlook remained more bearish, and BUSD's market value remained as depressed as USDT's. So it is clear that European and Asian investors still dominate the purchasing power, while American investors are more likely to leave.
Although the market value of DAI is in a volatile trend, it can be seen that it still has a state of slow upward movement. This is also related to the recent relatively stable price of ETH. Therefore, more investors believe that the current price is already at the bottom, so they are willing to use the situation of pledge to leverage the spot market. Overall, the main stabilizing currency's value fell by $70 million on a Sunday, and by nearly $200 million over two days.
A large amount of capital loss is the main problem in the currency market at present, in this case, to be able to maintain the BTC and ETH prices in the volatile range is not bad, to gamble a large increase or to see changes in the macro sentiment, of course, relatively speaking, the decline will be easier, especially in the nanoindex futures from the morning to the present, the downward trend has been maintained, if the European time zone has not realized the reversal, the low estimate can not run away.
But not only is the capital flowing out, but even the remaining purchasing power is becoming weak. The two-day figures were miserable through the weekend and, while the low levels of money were not unusual for a weekend, the generally falling levels also presaged greater investor caution over the use of funds, especially for bottom fishing, which has been said many times over and is not about price but about time.
In terms of the overall selling pressure, although purchasing power dropped relatively sharply, the decline in selling pressure also eased the reasons for the price decline. Of course, this decline is not only because over the weekend, the overall selling pressure after the ETH merger, the Fourth Witch's Day, and the US interest rate hike all showed a downward trend, which also shows that after the interruption of the "event", investors returned to a low turnover rate.
However, the data from the exchange corresponding to selling pressure shows that BTC and ETH show a completely different trend. Although the price of BTC is more stable, the amount of cash withdrawal is relatively low compared to selling pressure. More chips remain in the exchange. The ETH is more powerful, which has a lot to do with the high volume of chips in the exchange, but in general the reduction of ETH in the exchange memory will help the future development.
BTC and ETH stock from the exchange nearly half a year of BTC and the trend can also find, although the recent BTC selling pressure is better, but because the overall stock level is still low, so the pressure produced is not large, and ETH stock level is still high, even lower than the LUNA event stock, and far from the bottom, this is also the most unfavorable place for ETH.
In addition, from the BTC miner's stock, although the balance in the miner's purse was constantly decreasing, the actual reduction was only more than 100 pieces per day, which was still low for the data of the miner whose total stock was more than 1.83 million pieces. So at this stage, the decrease of the miner's stock is not catalytic for the trend of the overall market. Finally, there are still no clear signs that US stocks have shaken off last week's Fed rate hike, and the NASDAQ futures are on a downward trend. Although they did not break through Friday's lows, there is not much difference, so this represents a floor for BTC and ETH, which is not necessarily a floor for a while, so it is quite possible that the current buying floor will be accompanied by a temporary loss for investors seeking a short-term gain. Bottom fishing, the most important thing is not the price, but the time! Especially at this stage, there is no point in bottoming out after reaching a certain price range. The real trigger for a trend rebound must be a macro-driven shift in sentiment. All price-oriented bottom-buying is selling coins.
