Just watched "Film on Cryptocurrencies" on the Plot11 YouTube channel. At the beginning of that short documentary, a feng shui master said that bitcoin would lose its value in 2035 because we would be entering the age of Wood.
I believe him.
To translate, the age of Wood to me means that those who watered the earth will reap their harvest. That generation will not educate the next on the true value of bitcoin, however. At this point, governments and big financial institutions will finally overtake the retail investor as major custodian of bitcoin.
With this power, they will roll the rebellious currency into their own CBDC, re-establishing their hold over the global financial system and with it, the people.
How will they be able to do this?
Simple — just look at human nature.
Humans honestly aren't ready for individual financial freedom. The inclination of humankind in its current state is to look to a central authority. The average person needs someone to blame for his shortcomings. The people on top have an instinct to use power over others for selfish gain.
I have a cat that can't help but scratch the couch. I've punished the cat numerous times and pleaded with it. It won't stop.
Humans are worse than dumb animals because they have the intelligence to justify their silly behaviors. And if there is no catalyst strong enough to change the behavior, it continues and even multiplies.
Even crypto, with all of its technical innovation, is not enough of a catalyst to stop a lazy person from being lazy or an overbearing person from being authoritarian. As a collective, this places us in a pyramidal structure — the same as we've already structured with fiat currency as the baseline. There's no difference.
The Death of Bitcoin
I don't believe bitcoin will die from a technical attack. There is too much pride at stake in the private dev community to just let government devs beat them.
When government and its private subsidiaries take the market, around 2035, it will be through social and political means. As crypto adoption increases, the general public will view the technology/currency as a means of profit. Bitcoin, ether et al. will be referred to in the same way as a stock rather than a bridge into decentralization and financial sovereignty.
When crypto is defined this way, all that remains for oligarchs to do is centralize the currency flow into a controllable space. This will be easily accomplished through marketing campaigns showcasing regulated onboarding ramps like Paypal as the only viable means of obtaining and selling crypto. Smaller P2P protocols and DEXs will be demonized. Countries will use countless billions from their debased fiat currencies to pay for marketing campaigns to smear the libertarian philosophy of crypto.
When people are completely removed from the idea of personal financial custody, governments will simply regulate the custodians of crypto like Paypal into becoming arms of government. These will be the only addresses allowed for purchases like homes, cars and other big ticket items. Because the majority of value will be stationed there, the decentralized libertarian community will not be able to do much about it. Their addresses will be blacklisted, and there won't be enough people to justify switching to another coin. Monero, ZCash — they may not get hacked, but there will be no larger society to "pump the bags" of the early adopters. They will be easily shut out of mainstream society. Therefore, those communities will die.
Once government has control, they will onboard everyone into CBDCs and custody all competing currencies. Perhaps those with bitcoin will receive a high onboarding fee (corresponding to a six or seven digit value of bitcoin), but that fee will only represent the danger of bitcoin to CBDCs rather than any intrinsic value it actually has. Sure, the fixed supply and rarity means something, but the value will come from the government's fear mostly.
Once the government has custodied the bitcoin, just like it did with gold in generations previous, it will be impossible for retail investors to access. Digital currency will be used on the international level as collateral, with countries competing to outmaneuver each other in the international financial space.
To the average Joe Blow, however, bitcoin will be dead.
Unless...
