Bitcoin pulled back during the week ending November 29th, initially rallying up to just under the ATHs around $20,000 before finding resistance and pulling back. Bitcoin formed a bearish candle with a long wick on top, indicating exhausted buying and increased selling near a significant price level sure to offer substantial resistance going forward. 
(November 29, 2020 9:30PM EST) Outlook: Bitcoin pulled back last week, initially rallying up to just about the ATH at a hair under $20K before getting rejected, dropping about $3,000 late into the US holiday week before settling over the thinly-traded weekend markets. I have been projecting a significant pullback at or close to the ATH, and that is precisely what happened. After getting as high as ~$19,500, Bitcoin pulled back, falling hard to the low $16,000s before stabilizing a bit over the long weekend. It’ll be interesting to see what happens this coming week, as this is probably not the end of selling pressure in Bitcoin, as it is concluding a nearly 2 month rally straight up in which it nearly doubled in price. I think this coming week brings more sideways action with a bearish tilt, as the volatility will return and weak hands will be shaken out a la fears of a 2018 repeat. Additionally, in traditional markets, the seasonal liquidity drought is projected to “bottom” in roughly a week, indicating global market weakness ahead in the near-term. This is due to lower Fed cash injections and thus goosed Fed buying of Treasury bonds, and this coincides with a humongous equity rally that’ll require major banks and financial institutions to rebalance their portfolios, taking profits in equities and adding to bonds. Also, it’s worth mentioning, but some in the institutional circle refer to crypto assets like Bitcoin as “surfeit” assets, meaning they are luxury ‘excess’ portfolio toys that are the first to liquidate in the event of a risk-off sentiment change, leading equities and commodities. Some might say the crypto Selloff late last week might be the foreshadowing of an upcoming equities Selloff, which would coincide with lower prices for Bitcoin in the short-term as it looks for a local bottom. Support: Bitcoin pulled back to the 23.6% fib, finding support around the $17,000 level. If that holds, which would be impressive, BTC could attack 19K and then 20K once again. If it falls again, I’ll be looking for support around the $14,000 level, which is near the 50% Fibonacci retracement around $14,200 and the last major area of resistance between there and 20K, so it should now act as support... assuming BTC falls that low. However, if $14,000 doesn’t hold as support, look for support around the $12K - $13K level, which is a former heavily resistive area and the 78.6% fib. Yet, the 78.6% is a fib level that is not particularly common, at least in crypto, so in that scenario, perhaps a COVID black swan event, Bitcoin could wick down to $10,000 where it’ll meet ironclad support and my line in the sand. Resistance: $20,000 is long-term resistance and has been for nearly three years now. Bitcoin’s got an uphill battle to get back up there, but I think after a further pullback and higher low, 20K will be breached by Q1 2020, then we’ll be talking $25,000 and $30,000.
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