Bitcoin broke out during the week ending October 25, exploding higher and breaking through the $12,000 level, closing the week around resistance at $13,000. This is a bullish development and I think this breakout has plenty of legs left for Bitcoin to run before any meaningful pullback.
(October 26, 2020 8:00 PM EST)
Outlook: After a couple of quiet weeks with slightly bullish undertones, Bitcoin broke out last week, impulsively breaking through the 50 Day EMA and the $12,000, rising as high as ~$13,500 before pulling back a tad. If you've been following us you know we pointed to this happening a few days in advance, as well as this overall longer-term trend which has been taking shape and holding for some time now. We patiently waited for consolidation after a big move, plotted our scenarios, and followed the price action, which provided an excellent week of gains. I'm a buyer on dips, as I'm leaning towards the proclivity that Bitcoin will not go below $10,000 again. With the confluence of this current macroeconomic climate and Bitcoin's bullish fundamentals and price action, I think any time spent below $10,000 is a gift and should be taken advantage of. We are going higher; this market cycle will be a slower grind than the past's, but that's not to say Bitcoin's volatility is gone, only diminishing over time. Look at the chart above for the general ascending triangle which has formed on the Weekly chart, which shows we could dip as low as ~$11,000 or maybe $10,000 before falling outside the channel, which would be an extreme selloff and probably be bought up. This channel also points to Bitcoin prices just under $20,000 in the not too distant future; I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin finish the year between $14,000 - $18,000. In the near term future, expect increased volatility as we are less than 2 weeks away from the US Presidential Election, and who knows how long after that it'll be before there's an 'accepted' winner. There's a lot of hype right now around a possible COVID vaccine as more cities around the world re-shutdown amid infection spikes, and Congress continues to flounder around additional stimulus talks. Accumulation is the name of the game. I think anyone who buys Bitcoin in 2020 and holds until 2022-2024 will outperform anyone without Bitcoin in their portfolio.
Support: Look for support every $1,000, so $12,000, $11,000, and major support at $10,000 which is further supported by the rising 50 Week EMA at $9,731. Longer-term support would be the 200 Week EMA around $7,000, which is my line in the sand for the status of this uptrend. A break of that and my perspective changes entirely.
Resistance: So far Bitcoin has found a bit of resistance around the $13,000 level, breaking above it a few times before pulling back. To date, it is still being contested, so we'll have to wait and see if Bitcoin chops around a bit to establish higher support, or in typical crypto fashion, bust on through without wasting much time. $13,000 is the 2019 highs and is possibly Bitcoin's last major resistance level before previous ATH's at $20,000. If we break through $13,000 with conviction, we could see a return of the days of thousand dollar gains.
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